With the impact of outspoken, Western-driven diplomacy likely to be limited, African-led mediation, with concerted, wider international backing, gives the best chance for a peaceful and definitive resolution to the crisis. These outlined objectives should be the focus of a process that broadens the South African-led SADC mediation, adding strong accountability and oversight measures.
A negotiated settlement on a Tsvangirai-led transitional government.
The current levels of violence and intimidation preclude the possibility of holding a credible run-off. The holding of a run-off by the Mugabe camp is a ploy to stay in power, and it is highly unlikely that Mugabe would accept the conditions for a free and fair run-off in which he would be humiliatingly defeated.
As Zanu (PF) prepares for a second election, violence is likely to escalate, prolonging the suffering of Zimbabwe’s people.
For this reason, the first objective of the mediation should be to secure a political agreement between the MDC and Zanu (PF) that avoids the need for a run-off and the accompanying risks of even greater violence.
A negotiated settlement could establish a Tsvangirai-led transitional government with substantial participation by Zanu (PF) stalwarts to implement agreed upon constitutional reforms and hold free and fair elections under an agreed timeframe.
A credible run-off.
Even as it works to facilitate a negotiated settlement on a transitional government, SADC mediators must work with Zanu (PF) and the MDC to delineate the basic requirements for a credible run-off in the event the effort fails.
Urgent steps would be needed to guarantee a free and fair vote – even one in conditions as imperfect as for the 29 March election.
These include immediate cessation of violence and intimidation; strong monitoring and organisational roles for SADC, the AU and the UN; and massive deployment no later than roughly a month before the poll of independent national and international observers, who must remain on the ground until the results are announced.
As with negotiations for a transitional government, the mediation would need to address the modalities for ensuring military loyalty to a new civilian government. Failure to do so would risk a Tsvangirai victory leading to a military coup or martial law, and the security services splitting along factional lines.
Post published in: Opinions