First, there must be a maturation of the political system to ensure that the Zanu (PF) and the MDC engage as both competitors in the political arena and partners in the unity government. This will be difficult to achieve, especially under the divisive President Robert Mugabe, but other Zanu (PF) leaders, including a faction led by Vice President Joice Mujuru, know that their party is reeling, has lost much of its popular support, and needs a generational shift to rejuvenate its leadership.
Meanwhile, the MDC knows that it must still demonstrate to the country that it is a viable custodian of the state, showing itself to be competent, clean, and capable of preserving social change since independence. It is responding seriously – as it must – to recent allegations of untoward practices by some regional councils and recent entrants into government. It must also keep faith with its broad following by ensuring that civil society – including trade unions, human rights groups, and women’s organizations – are fully engaged in the process
of governance.
Security issues
Equally challenging are security issues. Many observers fear that a dozen or so so-called “securocrats” hold de facto veto power over transition.
This topic was so sensitive that it was not even addressed in the GPA negotiations.
These generals and other senior security officials are motivated by differing factors: fear of a loss of power and its financial benefits; possible prosecution for their crimes, including Matabeleland killings in the 1980s; hatred of Tsvangirai and the MDC; and a belief that they are the guardians of the country’s liberation.
Many Zimbabweans believe it is necessary to achieve their retirement, even at the cost of a “soft landing” allowing them to keep their assets and gain domestic impunity from possible prosecution. Similarly, the living conditions and salaries of the rank and file military must be improved, and security sector reform must ensure an apolitical military and police force respectful of human rights.
Devastated economy
The devastated economy is an equally daunting challenge. While Finance Minister Biti has won good marks for helping restore confidence and stability to the economy, the prospects for rapid recovery are weak, given years of agricultural decline, infrastructure neglect, anti-business policies, and a weak international economy that rules out large new aid or
investment packages.
There is a broad consensus among labour and business leaders to reverse the negative impact of an “indigenisation” policy, formally adopt a stable foreign currency to permanently replaced the Zimbabwe dollar, ensure foreign donors that the Multi-Donor Trust Fund will be a clean and transparent mechanism for aiding the country, and secure the departure of reserve bank governor Gideon Gono, whose record of biased and tainted practices have discouraged new donors and investors.
Not only were so-called “quasi-fiscal” measures used to divert government resources into pet projects benefitting the politically connected in the past, but as recently as this year, the IMF has reported that up to $16 million was transferred from statutory reserves into such areas as funding presidential scholarships, Air Zimbabwe, and diplomatic missions.
International help
During his visit to London, other European capitals and Washington last summer, Tsvangirai was met with luke-warm encouragement, much skepticism, and little cash. In addition to donors’ reluctance to support a government including Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s timing is awful.
It is seeking massive foreign aid and private investment at a time when donors are cutting aid budgets and foreign investors are seeking safe havens in the stormy global economy. Tellingly, no one called for a “Marshall Plan” for Zimbabwe.
In fact, this stance risks thwarting the very changes the international community is seeking, both by weakening the hand of the MDC and moderates in Zanu (PF), and by undercutting popular support for the reform process. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with reluctant donors hard-pressed to address the demands to ward off disease and hunger.
While the primary tasks ahead rest with Zimbabweans themselves, the international community has a vital role to play. SADC must take its role as guarantor of the GPA seriously.
The broader international community, especially the UK, U.S., the EU and China, should support and complement SADC’s efforts by a careful calibration of trade, aid, and investment to encourage progress, and maintenance of sanctions on the intransigent parties. The outside world should provide new recovery and development assistance only through “clean” and official mechanisms, and new engagement from the IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank.
Post published in: Opinions