Mubarak’s fate awaits Mugabe

HARARE - The most closely watched foreign politician in Zimbabwe these days is Hosni Mubarak. The disgraced former president of Egypt now awaits trial in Sharm el-Sheikh, the place to which President Robert Mugabe rushed to for endorsement at an African Union summit after his sham one-man re-election in June 2008.

Mugabe and Mubarak
Mugabe and Mubarak

Mubarak's fate gives hope to Zimbabweans that Mugabe will one day answer for his human rights abuses.

At the Livingstone summit in March, Zambian President Rupiah Banda urged Mugabe to watch events in Egypt closely.

When groups of citizens gathered to discuss the crisis in Zimbabwe, Mugabe's spin doctor Jonathan Moyo, called the participants "mercenaries" and "a bunch of sellouts".

Analysts say isolation by South Africa is the only way to force Mugabe to change course.

"South African isolation would collapse this regime in no time," said Ronald Shumba. “In a big way, South Africa has perpetuated his obduracy. The military factor can no longer be downplayed and it’s become a potent threat to the transition."

There are already reports that Zimbabwe's military and state security agencies plan to install the head of the armed forces, Constantine Chiwenga, as president should Mugabe become too ill to rule.

As reported in February, Constantine Chiwenga will take over as national leader if Mugabe is incapacitated for any reason.

Independent economist John Robertson said installing an army official as president would "send the few investors we have running."

"There would be very considerable worry in the business community," he said.

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