Speaking about the need to place Zimbabwe high on the agenda at the next Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Perth, Western Australia (28-30 October), Professor Stephen Chan said at a meeting of the Royal Commonwealth Society in London.
“I think we’re looking at forms of coalition government – messy forms of coalition government – in Zimbabwe for more than a decade or two to come. That unpalatable fact as we address the future, with or without the Commonwealth, is something that we supporters of the Commonwealth and Zimbabwe need to get used to.”
He also warned that in the event of Morgan Tsvangirai being elected leader of a post-Mugabe government after internationally supervised elections, the MDC leader would be unable to field a complete governmental apparatus without some kind of co-habitation with elements of the current government.
And, he suggested, that neither Britain nor the Commonwealth have sufficent credibility when it comes to dealing with Mugabe’s Zimbabwe.
Too late
“It may be too late at this stage for the Commonwealth to interject with a stronger voice. What is going to make a key difference is not the Commonwealth as an official organisation but individual Commonwealth members, particularly the Southern African Development Community members, particularly the African Union members.”
SADC was formed on 17 August 1992 in Windhoek. Several of its 15 members belong to the Commonwealth.
Chan added: “The personalization of the argument in the form of British Government versus Robert Mugabe has not helped matters and certainly has not led to any engagement with possible successor regimes, or the possibility of needing to arrive at some kind of messy, dirty but compromise settlement with adherents of all sides of the bitter dispute within Zimbabwe leaving some very recognizable residue – not a very large residue – of some aspect of Zanu (PF) still controlling major aspects of Zimbabwean politics.”
Stephen Chan is Professor of International Relations and Dean of Law and Social Sciences at the School of Oriental and African Studies in the University of London. In 2003 he wrote the book Robert Mugabe – A Life of Power and Violence (I.B. Tauris, London).
He said that the Zimbabwean diaspora sends back something like $1.2 billion every year.
Conservative
“That’s a conservative estimate. That money would go basically go to those who are less well advantaged. It could be much, much higher than that.”
He said that the ‘dollarization’ of the economy functions in Zimbabwe because there is purchasing power at all levels in the economic community and without the diaspora remittances this whole thing falls apart.”
At the moment – thanks mainly to diamonds and gold –the Zimbabwean economy is growing at 7-10 percent. But the poor rely almost entirely on remittances, he said.
“The voice of the squeezed ‘middle; is not necessarily represented by either wings of the MDC although probably they are its best choice,” he told his audience.
Not matured
“I agree that Morgan Tsvangirai has become more of a class act than earlier. But despite the fact that he is getting better, he doesn’t have a front bench that is worthy of the name. The MDC is either a busted flush or has not come up to speed, has not matured. It is basically unable to field a complete government apparatus without some kind of co-habitation with elements of the current government.”
Professor Chan was a member of a three-person panel on the subject of the Commonwealth and Zimbabwe. He plans to visit Zimbabwe in August and possibly debate with Morgan Tsvangirai. He described himself as a 'constructive' critic of the MDC leader.
The other panel members were Chipo Chung, the Tanzania-born actress and Matthew Neuhaus, Australia’s Ambassador to Zimbabwe who is a former Political Director of the Commonwealth Secretariat.
Neuhaus, who has often urged the Commonwealth to speak up loud and clear about vital issues affecting human rights, addressed the meeting under Chatham House Rules so he cannot be quoted in this report.
Propagandists
The meeting took place at a time when there is considerable security force harassment of the opposition in Zimbabwe, a time when all TV and radio stations are run by Zanu (PF) propagandists, a time when anyone can be arrested and imprisoned for saying something ‘rude’ or ‘disrespectful’ about 87- year old despot Robert Mugabe who is being treated by top medical specialists for pancreatic cancer but who is expected to live for a few years yet.
The meeting also came at a time when most Zimbabweans are asking about the value of the Commonwealth, which is under fire from its most dedicated supporters for keeping quiet on just about every issue of world importance.
But when The Zimbabwean asked Chan how the Commonwealth might best answer hundreds of thousands – even millions – of Zimbabweans who demand justice after the Mugabe/Emmerson Mnangaga/Perence Shiri organised slaughter of approximately 20,000 men, women and children in Matabeleland during Gukuruhundi, the question was ignored.
In his book about Mugabe, Chan said that during the state terrorism of the 1980s an estimated 18,000 people were killed. “In years to come, all the ballot boxes, all the Matabeleland constituencies would reject Mugabe,” he wrote.
Post published in: Africa News