Until recently, there was a general perception that polls would be held after critical political reforms had been completed. It is now clear that the presidential declaration is expected to be an element of surprise to the MDC.
"We will not go beyond that date once I announce it and it does not matter what others will say, once I announce it, that's all," Mugabe told his National Consultative Assembly last Friday.
Political analysts say the announcement is part of a wider plan to hold elections in an atmosphere that renders only one possible outcome.
All the elements of one-man rule are being put into place in Zimbabwe. The President's own party is increasingly irrelevant as Mugabe relies instead on armed squatters and elements of the war veterans to act as his private campaign force. All those who might be inclined to back the MDC are threatened with violent retribution.
Dewa Mavhinga, the Regional Information and Advocacy Coordinator for Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, said the announcement was shocking.
"This is alarming considering the incredibly slow pace of reforms to create a conducive environment for free and fair elections," Mavhinga said. "It appears the only 'major' reform that will be achieved before March 2012 is the finalization of a new constitution which is likely to be presented as a major trophy by Zanu (PF). However, major areas of concern – partisan security forces and intact structures of violence and intimidation – remain outstanding and unresolved."
Divorce inevitable
Mugabe has already shot down that demand. The President said the MDC formations were making every effort to cling on to the ramshackle inclusive government by trying to derail the constitution making process, but reiterated that the marriage of convenience had run its full course and should be discarded.
He added that his party had done everything to accommodate the "unending and concocted list of demands" such as the MDC formations' push for security sector reforms.
"We cannot continue like this when others make demands for security reforms, we don't do that. The security forces remain what they are and they will not be tampered with by anyone," Mugabe said.
Election observers
Mugabe may or may not choose to announce an election date this week. Even if that ballot actually occurs it will not be in conditions remotely compatible with democracy.
Political commentator Ronald Shumba said the SADC should put election observers in place immediately. "The earlier the better," he said.
A fraudulent contest must lead to Zimbabwe's automatic suspension from the regional body, he added. The primary outside power with real influence, though, remains South Africa. It provides Zimbabwe with virtually all fuel and power and is its main trading partner.
President Zuma has ratcheted pressure on Mugabe and withheld public support in the belief that he could then extract concessions from the recalcitrant Zanu PF leader. Shumba said it was time for Zuma to make it clear that South Africa will not tolerate elections conducted by terror, nor subsidise what is fast becoming a military dictatorship.
Post published in: News