I beg to be forgiven for this patently negative attitude, but having spent about 13 years mired in this eerie and acutely painful hellhole of unpredictability, it should be easy to understand why my lenses are so blurred.
Since late 1999, the only certain thing about Zimbabwe has been the absence of certainty, thanks to some of our politicians. This is indeed a confusing pattern because, technically, Zimbabwe has not been at war, and it should only be in a country at war that the future should be so unpredictable.
President Robert Mugabe has called 2013 a watershed year, and this is precisely where my anxiety resides. A watershed, so to speak, is a crossroads. Things can go in any direction. I am not concerned, by the way, that he sees next year that way – I am concerned that 2013 is exactly that.
The signs of hope are there, to some extent, but they are very fragile. Mugabe has spoken well about the need for peace and tolerance ahead of the elections, and has even castigated his own class for unbecoming behaviour. I see that even the likes of Joseph Chinotimba and Zanu (PF) party youths are now also calling for peace and harmony.
They also profess impatience with the slow speed at which the constitution-making process is going and acknowledge the need for free and fair elections.
That would be commendable if there was a good reason to believe this newly found philosophy holds water. Yet there is none. Let’s us go back to March 2008 and the general elections held in that month.
Things looked almost perfect as we inched towards the elections, and indeed during the polling days too. For the first time since 1980, talk around violence was so muffled and people cast their votes in relative peace.
You will remember, however, that things were not perfect at all the moment it became clear that Uncle Bob had lost. People were killed, people were maimed and women were raped, because the Dear Leader had to win the run-off at any cost or, as the Red Eyed Gang vowed, there would be war.
I also see that Mugabe and his class now have a new spring in their step. They are convinced that they stand a good chance of routing Morgan Tsvangirai and his “bunch of sell-outs”. What with Tsvangirai’s bedroom slip-ups, rampant corruption among his flock and the newly-found contentment in the Government of National Unity, they are naturally tempted to see things that way. But, let’s say elections take place (I am not saying they will), and Mugabe loses again. Is there any guarantee that he and the gang will accept the outcome? Hardly likely.
Granted, it has dawned on Mugabe that he needs to leave a legacy for posterity. He has realised that, in his political twilight, he should do things that will make people remember him and cherish his contributions to the emancipation of the black majority. That is why he now talks on and on about peace, and unity in his party.
The major problem, however, is that the legacy, for him, should be premised on an outright victory against his political competitors. A loss for him will entail humiliation and a waste of the 50 years, since 1963 when he joined the then Zanu, that he committed to the “revolution”.
Add to that the dimension of the Red Eyed Gang. While I think it is a given fact that Mugabe is guaranteed a safe exit in the event of a defeat, the same does not apply to his lieutenants. These guys have, over the years, been busy strapping themselves in all manner of mischief. They have been abusing our God-given rights top, centre and bottom. They have been stealing from us so much that their loot is now too heavy to flee with.
They are not willing to run away, so they will find ways of staying, and they will try to do that by ALL means necessary. That includes the possibility of 27 June 2008—Win or War. By the way, this gang is so hardened it does not care what the international community—let alone the local one—will say or do. As I pointed out about two months ago, the gang is a bunch of spoilers that seeks to thrive on chaos likely to emerge.
That leaves Tsvangirai et al in a sorry state. They have tasted the warped victory of a coalition government and will drive to have a sequel of the GNU, in order for its members to guarantee themselves another lease of life. That means, come 2013, Zimbabweans will once again find themselves between a grave and the seething sea. – For feedback, please write to majonitt@gmail.com
Post published in: Opinions & Analysis