President Robert Mugabe has announced his annual wish to have the polling done this year, ‘with or without a new constitution’. Some observers have said this is because Mugabe wants elections before his health deteriorates owing to old age but he does not want a constitution that curtails the vast powers he has enjoyed over the decades of his rule.
He also does not want rules that provide ‘too much electoral transparency’ which would make rigging the polls difficult. Interestingly, Zanu (PF) has accused its MDC opponents of stalling the constitution building process, largely because they would not accede to the former’s additional demands.
Zanu (PF) leaders are already canvassing for votes and according to recent reports, also preparing the Green Bombers, the CIO, some army units and other thugs to scare villagers into voting for them.
President Mugabe’s Zanu (PF) faces a bruising battle against Tsvangirai’s MDC-T in all the Mashonaland provinces, Manicaland, Masvingo and the Midlands. The parties’ fate shall be decided in those former Zanu (PF) strongholds, quite likely by both the ballot and the bullet.
With or without a new constitution, and even in the presence of international observers, ruling out violence in such polls would be wishful thinking. Since losing the elections in 2008, Zanu (PF) has been trying hard to revive its support in the urban areas, where it took most of the battering.
It has used every means possible to redress the losses to the MDC-T; including smear campaigns and hate speech using the partisan state media, police harassment, legal intimidation and the Chipangano thugs in Harare. However, so far no tangible results can be seen.
In those areas Simba Makoni’s Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn (MKD) party is a formidable contender; though not in the league of Zanu (PF) and MDC-T. In the 2008 polls MKD split the ballot, ostensibly to Zanu (PF)’s favour, which made some people suspect that it was a Zanu (PF) surrogate. Many analysts suggested that had those votes not gone to MKD, the MDC-T would have won with a greater margin and Tsvangirai could have clinched the presidency outright.
Nonetheless some observers argue that the MKD’s effect has been diminished since it lost the backing of Zapu leader Dumiso Dabengwa, Welshman Ncube’s MDC and Arthur Mutambara. Though an astute economist, Simba Makoni lacks the charisma of Mugabe and Tsvangirai to drum up more appeal for his party.
Another party that has been considered a vote splitter is the MDC led by Welshman Ncube. In the 2008 polls the MDC did almost the same thing MKD did in splitting the votes, which affected results for the larger MDC-T and Zanu (PF). The MDC-N scored victories only in Matabeleland, its major support base.
In Matabeleland the MDC formations face a major threat in Zapu, the oldest liberation movement in Zimbabwe. Like Zanu (PF), Zapu has had its traditional stronghold taken over by the MDC.
The two top contenders in the polls, the MDC-T and Zanu (PF) do not have anything very new to offer to the electorate. Zanu (PF) may continue using violence and coercion. It will repeat its old claim that the MDC wants to ‘reverse the gains of liberation and help the British recolonise Zimbabwe’ and whoever votes for it must be murdered.
The poll scavengers are also there as usual. Over 20 political parties are registered with the Zimbabwe Election Commission. Among them are the other rather insignificant MDC splinters: the African National Party (ANP) led by Egypt Dzinemunhenzva; the Rusununguko United People’s Party (RUPP) of Anslem Karimupfumbi and the Zimbabwe Development Party (ZDP), led by Kissnot Mukwazhi, and more.
Analysts say such organisations give an illusion that there is democracy in Zimbabwe, while they do not make any significant contribution to the country’s democratic aspirations. Most of them often collapse as soon as the elections are over.
The interesting Zimbabwean political landscape also has the secessionist Mthwakazi People’s Congress (MPC) and the Mthwakazi Liberation Front (MLF), who won’t take part in the polls because they do not consider themselves Zimbabweans.
Post published in: Analysis