There are isolated pockets of violence, yes, but not so many as to warrant a wail. Uncharacteristically, those who in the past have boasted of having degrees in violence are preaching peace at every turn. Even the Chipangano outfit, so infamous for all manner of violence, has recently been preaching peace.
Again, the usual suspects from the junta are at the moment quiet on their views regarding the imagined eligibility or lack of such as Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC to rule Zimbabwe. There is a sense of things moving in the right direction.
Yet this too is an illusion, thanks to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation summit scheduled for Victoria Falls in August this year.
After more than a decade of messing almost everything up, Zanu (PF) seems to have a huge appetite to give Zimbabwe a new brand.
The UNWTO summit is just what the doctor ordered as a platform for rebranding, and I am sure there is consensus among the mischief makers that we cannot afford to spoil this chance to give the world the impression that we are a good people after all. Politicians, investors and global villagers are keenly following what is happening here.
Certainly, the referendum, which could be held as early as March, will pass without much incident. After all, the three major parties have all agreed on the direction to take.
They have fundamentally agreed to support a “Yes” vote – and that virtually rules out the possibility of politically motivated violence.
We are likely to also see some reforms being introduced to cement the impression that Zimbabwe has come of age and wants to settle down. Of course, these will not be too dramatic because the game plan is not to give away too much.
As has happened in the past, President Robert Mugabe will set the pace and the MDC will be forced to follow. They will begrudgingly agree to the glossed-over reforms because they are anxious to see some semblance of movement towards a democratic dispensation.
The summit will take place in an atmosphere of tranquillity and Mugabe and the government—if ever the coalition was such a thing—will get international praise. In fact, they might actually steal the limelight from Zambia.
That is where it ends. Mugabe will then announce the dates for elections, and this is where the new phase of turbulence will begin. The hardliners in his party will deliberately push for controversy so as to create chaos. In the meantime, Mugabe will continue talking peace and proclaim to the world that he wants Zimbabwe to move forward. UNWTO would have come and gone, so there won’t be much else to worry about. Elections will take place, but under a tense situation.
Scores of people will probably die, and many more will be beaten – but Zanu (PF) will say all parties are to blame. The bottom line is, it is very difficult for Zanu (PF) to win free and fair elections, and those who have tasted power for so long know that.
Tsvangirai will realise that Bob took him for a ride. He will eventually understand that the old man smiled at him and offered him tea because he wanted UNWTO to succeed and endorse his legacy as a statesman of worth. People will also get disillusioned that the constitution they fought so hard for is a fragile document that can be torn up so easily. The polls will be disputed, of course, but Zanu (PF) would have achieved what it set out to do right from the start, that is to perpetuate the coalition government as a way of holding onto power.
Some prophets have forecast that gold will rain from the sky this year, but gazing into my political crystal ball, I see charcoal dust. I see mayhem because that is how Zanu (PF) wants things. – For feedback, please write to majonitt@gmail.com
Post published in: Analysis