Prominent politicians linked to the faction led by former vice President Joice Mujuru are now saying Zanu (PF) has effectively split. Factionalism has always been there in the party, but at no time since its formation in 1963 did Zanu (PF) face a real split. Some two years ago, I argued in this column that the party would never split, mostly because members would always rally behind the party as an institution rather than certain individuals.
If what is happening now holds, my thesis would be disproved. The likes of Rugare Gumbo are saying that there are now two Zanu (PF)s, an illegal one led by President Robert Mugabe after the 2014 congress and the popular one that Mujuru must lead. There seems to be sense in this. The manner in which Mugabe handled the factional fighting last year is unbelievable.
Ordinarily, you would not have expected him to listen so readily to his wife Grace, who took the party’s internal politics by storm as a political upstart. It defies logic why Mugabe would listen to the poppycock that Mujuru wanted to torpedo him. He might be getting physically and politically senile with age, but I think he still retains some level of common sense that must have advised him better. After all, he still has access to some un-factionalised advice that would have made him see sense.
It is also confusing how the Mnangagwa faction, which for years played second fiddle to the Mujuru camp and enjoys little grassroots support, would spring such a big coup against the more popular camp. To put it more directly, a lot of things that should not have happened in Zanu (PF) carried the day last year and are prevailing to this date. That is why I say the crisis is too bad to be true.
This puts me on guard and makes me smell a big rotting fish. What if the Zanu (PF) crisis is stage-managed? My suspicion might sound a bit farfetched, but it’s hard to be an optimist in a ruined Zimbabwe, and with Zanu (PF), anything is possible. The strategy might be just to sell a façade of chaos as a way of diverting attention from the current economic problems and putting the opposition to sleep. As it stands, most people are glued to what is happening in Zanu (PF).
Discontent over the Mugabe government’s failure to fix the economy is there, but it has been subsumed by the party’s internal politics. Didymus Mutasa’ stunts as he legally challenges the 2014 congress outcome and the status of Mugabe and those aligned to the Mnangagwa faction have taken centre stage. So have Mujuru’s strategic and well-timed statements on Mugabe’s claims that she is a saboteur and witch. So have Rugare Gumbo’s incisive and apparently bold statements against Mugabe and Mnangagwa.
Political analysts are perched on the edges of their chairs trying to unpack the implications of the apparent split in Zanu (PF), and they are trying to formulate the 2018 scenarios based on the current strife. Economists, labour and general critics have almost forgotten the economy.
On the other hand, opposition parties have gone into a mode of false security. It seems they are now convinced that Zanu (PF) will be a limping ass come the elections. Tellingly but disturbingly, they seem to have already concluded that the claimed split is real and are already plotting to rope the perceived renegades into their grand coalition dream.
What if Zanu (PF) is actually sending them a decoy? The likes of Mujuru, Mutasa, Gumbo, and others would run with the opposition in the run-up to 2018. That would mean opposition strategies would be based on an imagined coalition with a breakaway Zanu (PF). The ruling party would then pull the rug from under the opposition’s feet just before the elections. That would entail the Mujuru faction announcing its return to the original Zanu (PF) on the eve of the elections. Of course, my conspiracy hypothesis leaves some questions unanswered. For instance, it assumes that Zanu (PF) has, all of a sudden, become clear on its succession plot. The return of Mujuru before the 2018 elections has the real potential of causing more chaos in the party as Mnangagwa is also interested in the presidency after Mugabe. How would the two relate at the elections?
Is there going to be a compromise of some sort? What if a staged breakaway will fatally confuse the Zanu (PF) membership and drive many voters to the opposition? Zanu (PF)’s current turmoil might be real, but we should not discount the possibility that it is fake. – To comment on this article, please contact majonitt@gmail.com
Post published in: Analysis