Govt’s projected 23% agriculture growth disputed

would see the economy return to positive growth buoyed by a 23 percent growth in agriculture.
“Contributing to this improved performance is the increase in production of maize from about 750 000 tons in 2005, to an estimated 1,7 million tons this year,” Murerwa said.
But MDC (Mutambara faction) shadow Agriculture minister Renson Gasela said: “It’s a lie.”
He said only 100 000 tons of maize had so far been delivered to the GMB and that at best the country will have a paltry 300 000 tons at the end of deliveries in October.
“We appeal to the government to have mercy and compassion for the people by approaching donors in time,” Gasela said. 
He said Murerwa’s estimates were flawed and that government was attempting to cover its tracks by barring independent crop assessment teams permission to evaluate agriculture stocks. Government earlier this year barred a U.N. Food and Agriculture (FAO) crop assessment team saying it would rely on its own estimates.
Murerwa said agriculture had improved remarkably this year after falling by 12 percent last year due to delayed availability of some inputs such as fertilizer and chemicals. He announced that new black farmers settled on land seized from white commercial farmers still needed support, contradicting his earlier 23 percent growth projections.
“The figures are too optimistic considering there is a huge financing shortfall and little or no expertise among the new farmers,” said an agro-economist with the commercial farmers union (CFU). “These people are not farmers. They got into farming by virtue of land reforms. They seriously lack commitment,” he said.
Independent economic analyst John Robertson said Murerwa’s figures were “unbelievable.”
“The sector has been on a free fall for the past six years and to just turn it around is not achievable,” Robertson said.
Kuwadzana Member of Parliament Nelson Chamisa described the figures as “wild” adding there was no way the country could project a bumper harvest when evidence on the ground points to non-production on the farms.
“The government itself has conceded that the acquired farms are nothing more than ‘weekend braai resorts’ for the ruling Zanu (PF) elite,” Chamisa said.
Independent estimates suggest that the agriculture sector has shrunk by more than 50 percent.
Tobacco, Zimbabwe’s single largest foreign currency earner at its peak, has slid year-on-year from 160 million kilogrammes in 2001/2, 85 million kgs in 2002/3, 65 million kgs in 2003/4, 74 million kgs in 2004/5 to the current 50 million kgs.
Murerwa admitted: “Tobacco, however, did not perform as expected, with an expected output of about 50 million kgs, down on last year’s 74 million kgs. Efforts to improve the preparations for this year’s tobacco crop, have therefore, been made.”
Horticultural exports, which contributed 5.8 percent of total agricultural output and about eight percent to the sector’s foreign currency earnings, declined by 22.53 percent in 2005.
The result has been the destitution of thousands of black former workers on the farms, along with their families. Even those farms still operating are suffering not only from the disruption but also from a disastrously lopsided exchange rate.
The Zimbabwe dollar is officially valued at 101 000 to one US dollar. On the “parallel market” as the black market is generally known, though, it trades at more than 500 000 to the greenback, making it almost impossible for farmers to legally import fertilisers and other inputs from outside Zimbabwe.