on movements and civil society groups co-ordinate a mass action plan, the ICG warns that there might be “an explosion that could cost thousands of lives”.
At present the opposition is fragmented. The MDC is split and while the majority Tsvangirai-led faction has been in consultation with the people since last year, to decide upon the next step, no concrete plans have been put forward. According to the report, a sense of “paralysis hangs over the country” and the stalemate is only likely to be broken by some sort of “domestic resistance”. The report calls upon the MDC and civil society to manage the resistance by working together in a loose coalition to “speak to the government with one voice.”
In a recent discussion programme, SW Radio’s Violet Gonda interviewed women activists and opposition leaders. WOZA co-ordinator Jenni Williams said that in her experience, in order for mass action to be successful “you have to have confidence-building activities”. She added: “We don’t have a lot of confidence in the fact that mass action is definitely on the agenda and being planned, when we do not see these confidence-building measures.”
She said the MDC’s claim that they were consulting the masses on a way forward, was still seen as rhetoric. WOZA did not see a real consultative process at the grassroots level because they, as a grassroots movement, had not been consulted by any of the political parties. She said that she was “very surprised” that they had not been approached. However, Sekai Holland from the Tsvangirai MDC said that the consultation process was, as far as she could see, “on course”.
According to ICG, public discontent is at an “all time high” due to Operation Murambatsvina and the economic crisis. However the “MDC may not be ready to take advantage” as it “gives the impression of scrambling to catch up to scenarios that continually take it by surprise.”
In order for the MDC to get the country back on the road to democracy, the ICG says that it must first overcome its “serious internal divisions” and mount an “effective non violent resistance campaign”. The report does indicate some hope of co-operation between the two factions of the MDC and civil society as both Tsvangirai and Mutambara attended a Christian Alliance meeting in June 2006 to discuss greater unity.
Speaking on SW Radio, Thoko Matshe from the Mutambara-led MDC, said: “I think we have allowed ourselves to be divided and ruled,” adding, “What I am getting to hear from my colleagues is that we should have more co-ordination”. However she felt that many Zimbabweans were sitting on the sidelines rather than getting involved in the struggle. “People are expecting other people to do, there are too few people n the frontline being hit over and over again,” she said.
The ICG report indicated that fear of retribution from the government prevents many people from participating in mass protests, although it does point out that if large numbers of Zimbabweans take to the streets in peaceful protests, the army “might prefer to stand aside”.
The report says that the MDC and civil society organisations need to engage the people’s support for mass action by appealing to their discontent about the economic situation rather than the democratic one. In a country where a majority of the population lives on or below the poverty line, protests regarding bread and butter issues are more likely to goad people into action.
Despite Holland’s assertion that “it’s very insulting and abusive” for the media to keep saying Zimbabweans are spectators when every Zimbabwean here in Zimbabwe is “struggling to survive and is struggling for change”, Matshe concedes that Zimbabweans “are in survival mode. We are not really in a mode of change for democracy and building that democracy.”