Behind-the-scenes pressure on Mugabe (24-08-07)

ordering price reversals – even if pursued for personal political survival – trumps democracy, economics and respect for the rule of law.
The Southern African leaders instead rounded on Western powers and were convinced by the wily Mugabe that imaginary sanctions were hurting the Zimbabwe economy, although in essence this is a travel ban on Mugabe and his cronies.
President Thabo Mbeki’s mediation in the Zimbabwe crisis, Mugabe’s violent suppression of the democratic opposition ahead of next year’s general elections and the deepening economic hardships in his crisis-torn country were a major focus of the SADC summit which closed last Friday.
The octogenarian leader was told in a closed-door session to comply with common electoral rules adopted across the SADC region in 2004.
SADC executive secretary Tomaz Salamao presented a rescue package for Zimbabwe, which will be assessed by a team of regional Finance ministers.
Mugabe will be expected to sign up to a series of reforms, including a new constitution agreed to by the opposition and free and fair elections, if he wants to unlock the US$500 million aid package.
Unconfirmed reports are circulating that Mugabe has been told that none of the money, to be released in a phased 18-month package, will be paid to the Zimbabwean government unless Mugabe takes the mediation being coordinated by Mbeki seriously.
Sources told The Zimbabwean that SADC leaders insisted that no aid would go to Harare without a clear signal that Mugabe had agreed to a set of “circumstances” or a “context” that would justify assistance.
In his report back on the mediation, Mbeki reportedly told his peers that he believed Mugabe and his government recognised the urgency of a political and economic recovery plan, but were not confident that Zimbabwe was ready to create the circumstances that would make one possible.
The “circumstances” include:
– A new constitution acceptable to the opposition MDC and including electoral provisions that would meet international standards of fairness and transparency;
– Repeal of laws used to muzzle the media or to close newspapers and others used to silence or intimidate political opponents; and
– A credible programme for economic recovery, including the removal of structural distortions embedded in the economy and steps to end Zimbabwe’s isolation.
Levy Mwanawasa, Zambian President and new SADC chairperson, said he expected polls next year to be free and fair.
Despite oily platitudes about Mugabe scoring a diplomatic victory, economic and political breakdown in Zimbabwe, which Mugabe’s critics blame on his policies, were the major preoccupation at the summit.
Domestic and Western opponents accuse Mugabe of destroying Zimbabwe’s once prosperous agricultural base through seizing farms and rigging his re-election in 2002 to hang on to power. Mugabe denies the charges, and says his country is being undermined by enemies led by former colonial power Britain.
Analysts say fellow leaders in the 14 nation bloc will not break ranks and will maintain their traditional public approval of Mugabe, a hero for many in the region as victor in Zimbabwe’s struggle against white rule.
A Harare-based human-rights lawyer called the SADC an “old boys’ club” of men who mostly share a common liberation history that binds them one to the other against a common enemy.