POLITICAL SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE

For the past 10 years, this country has suffered increasing political polarisation, unbridled authoritarianism, gross violations of human rights and the erosion of civil liberties. The economy is a pale shadow of its former self. It is against this backdrop that we briefly examine the political situation and suggest some of the ways in which business could contribute to the on-going search for solutions.
The formation of the MDC in September 1999 caused the ruling Zanu (PF) party to press the panic button and embark on what can only be called the most economically irrational commercial farm invasions – with devastating consequences for the national economy. The decision to invade and forcibly take over commercial farms was a political decision but its negative impact was largely economic and social.
It is regrettable that the effects of that decision are still being acutely felt in all sectors of the economy. Political tension has been on the increase since 2000, and Zimbabwe has been reduced to a pariah state in terms of its international status.
The main features of the current political situation in Zimbabwe can be summarised as follows:
The split within the MDC resulted in two formations of that party, one led by Morgan Tsvangirai and the other by Arthur Mutambara. Efforts to re-unite the two in the run up to the March 29 elections have not been successful. They have now decided to participate in the elections as separate and distinct entities – thereby splitting the opposition vote to the advantage of the ruling party. Perhaps the only saving factor is the defection of Simba Makoni from the fractious Zanu (PF), which means that the ruling party is essentially now split as well.
Makoni’s announcement that he intends to run for president seems to have given old Bob the scare of his life.  Makoni, who insists that he is still a member of Zanu (PF), says he has political support from both within and without Zanu (PF). It is reliably understood that the Mujuru faction of Zanu (PF) is backing Makoni in his bid for the position of President of Zimbabwe.
The Mujuru faction is generally believed to be opposed to Mugabe’s stranglehold on power and to the manner in which he allegedly manipulated that party’s nomination process last December. Makoni and his close associate, Ibbo Mandaza, claim that after undertaking nationwide consultations, they received significant political support from various sources, including Zanu (PF), MDC and civil society. They have, however, not been able to name any specific names or groups of people that may have accorded them such support. It is now firmly established that the Mutambara faction has decided to support the Makoni group.
The SADC meditation efforts spearheaded by President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa ended in a deadlock with no real agreement on any major solutions between the MDC and Zanu (PF). Indeed, the whole process was ill conceived in that it was not adequately inclusive of the various shades and interests in the Zimbabwean body politic. To a considerable extent, the MDC seems to have been taken for a ride by Zanu (PF), which managed to pass through the legislature the 18th amendment to the Constitution as well as peripheral changes to POSA, AIPPA and the notorious BSA with the MDC’s full support.
Zanu (PF)’s refusal to promulgate the newly drafted constitution prior to the holding of the 2008 elections, as well as its refusal to postpone elections until the various changes that have so far been agreed are implemented effectively derailed the whole mediation process. It must be understood that the majority of the agreed reforms to selected legislation was likely to have the effect of levelling the political playing field, at least in so far as the conduct of democratic elections was concerned.
Given the loss of popular support that Zanu (PF) is currently experiencing, it was abundantly clear to most elements in that party that an election held under a new and democratic constitution was not winnable by the party. No sensible political party will be willing to reform legislation and progressively transform the political environment to its own detriment.
The nation now faces the grim prospect of holding national elections under basically the same conditions that prevailed in the past 25 years, and the ultimate results are a foregone conclusion. The consequences for the economy and national development are very likely to be quite ghastly, to say the least.
It may be possible for the SADC to resume its impotent mediation process after the March 29 elections, possibly with a new impetus focused on urging the MDC and Zanu (PF) to form a government of national unity (GNU). The argument is likely to be that a GNU would be acceptable to most Western democracies and other developed countries that have the capability to assist Zimbabwe to rebuild its national economy.
Political violence has continued, and in some cases it has actually escalated. For example, there have been considerably higher levels of political violence during the Zanu (PF) primary elections throughout the country. The unseating of several members of the old guard within Zanu (PF) has tended to generate intra-party violence, a clear indication that the forthcoming elections are likely to witness high levels of political violence and human rights violations.
This is unfortunate in the light of the grief and suffering that we have all seen in Kenya, a hitherto reasonably peaceful and somewhat democratic country. Questions are being asked as to whether post-election Zimbabwe could also experience similar explosions of violence albeit not along ethnic lines, but perhaps along political party lines. My initial guess is that this is unlikely to happen in Zimbabwe given the prevailing political culture of fear and what my colleague, Eldred Masunungure calls the risk-averse nature of the psyche, (or is it the culture?) of most Zimbabweans.