Then the desperate attempts to get the opposition to unite – fresh
negotiations, a deal is struck and then rejected by the political structures
(not the top leadership) of the MDC and we were faced with an election in
six weeks, no money, a divided opposition and widespread disbelief in the
electoral process – why vote, was the most frequently asked question.
Then came the Makoni bombshell. I was about to go onto a radio talk show in
South Africa when friends called me to say Makoni was holding a press
conference in Harare and was coming in as a new Presidential candidate. I
knew that was a most significant development and I broke the news on SA
radio and said that in my view this event would shake up the whole
establishment here and might change the outlook for the elections.
It did both; it was the first senior defection from Zanu PF in recent years.
The Makoni decision was followed by a number of others as rumors of his
support base in Zanu PF spread. But you can never predict what will happen
in a situation like this because the law of unintended consequences always
follows through. What we did not expect to happen was the impact it made on
the outlook of the general population towards the election. Skeptism was
immediately transformed into expectation.
People began to register to vote again, interest in the political process
stepped up and the national debate grew to a crescendo. Whatever the truth,
people thought that with Zanu PF divided and the armed forces clearly in two
minds, that Mugabe would not be able to rig this election the way he had in
2002 and 2005. Money began to flow into the political process; people got
off the shelf and threw themselves into the fray. MDC was able to field
nearly 2000 candidates and demonstrated a degree of preparedness that took
all by surprise.
A short campaign has ensued. MDC rallies and meeting across the whole
country have attracted large audiences – record attendance in many cases
when compared to the past 8 years of almost continuous political activity.
But more than that – people suddenly gained the confidence to flaunt their
party regalia and demonstrate their support.
For Makoni et al the situation peaked about two weeks ago and their support
as reflected in the polls being conducted among the voting populations shows
that their support is now waning – at the last count Makoni had 8 per cent
of the national vote with 27 per cent saying that would not disclose who
they would vote for and 17 per cent saying they would not vote. Morgan
Tsvangirai is now well in the lead in the polls with Makoni still trailing
Mugabe. How anyone who is not nuts can still support Mugabe is a mystery to
So here we are – 8 days to go and what can we expect? Pretty much everything
and everybody is behaving according to our expectations. The SADC observer
mission is here led by Angola where democratic elections are still a distant
dream. They have already stated that the conditions are free and fair! What
a hoot! I am looking forward to all the other “democratic” States arriving –
China, Libya among them. Morgan said that the observer missions were a waste
of time and money; Zimbabweans are on their own.
Still no international press here, still no programming on State controlled
media, still full-page ads from Zanu PF in every daily newspaper. But Zanu
PF has not held one meeting in Bulawayo and the Presidential rally has been
cancelled. Just to show them what might happen if they did come to Bulawayo,
a local Party hack sponsored a football match with a substantial prize plus
free beer and was rewarded by the crowd roaring their approval when a MDC T
shirt walked into the Stadium and sat near the dignitaries. Then at the end
of the match the crowd sang rude songs about Zanu PF and the actual sponsors
of the event. Great to see people not afraid any more.
I sense a real shift in the Police – perhaps its because I have had more to
do with them this time – normally the closest I get to a Policeman is a
confrontation at a rally or march. This past week we had the CIO arrest
three volunteers putting up posters – they took them into custody, cuffed
them around and forced them to eat a poster. The Police officer to whom we
complained phoned the CIO and said that if the MDC people were nor released
immediately he would charge them with assault – he then instructed the
victims to go to a doctor and get a medical report and lay charges against
the CIO. That has not happened before – I do not know who was more shocked,
the CIO operatives or us!
I am exhausted and wonder how Morgan is coping – he is in the rural areas
most days, speaking and traveling continuously. The pressure is enormous.
Sunday he speaks at a Star rally in the Zimbabwe grounds where Simba
launched his campaign three weeks ago before a small (3000) crowd. I am
going up for that and expect to see a massive crowd if the recent weeks have
been anything to go by.
We should all now prepare for the election itself. We intend to declare the
result from our own field reports and I am sure we will be the first to say
what has happened – so watch your news on Sunday morning. We have had
threats from the military and a clear statement from South Africa that they
would not tolerate any military intervention, but anything is possible. Lets
just pray for a landslide that no one can argue with. Then comes the hard
part – coping with the complete mess Zanu PF leaves as its legacy of 28
years of failed and corrupt government.
Eddie CrossPost published in: News