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Based on my little knowledge of the Zimbabwe political situation and observations of the behaviour of political animals among us, I have, in the past few weeks, proposed some four possible scenarios for the 2008 presidential elections. In Scenario One, I have postulated that Zanu (PF) will retain political power and obtain majority support in both houses of Parliament. This would essentially result in the maintenance of the status quo. I have rated this scenario as “very likely”.
In Scenario Two, I postulated that the “new kid on the bloc”, Simba Makoni would win the election and assume power, and then proceed to form a government of national unity (GNU) with the MDC after the elections. I have graded this second scenario as “somewhat likely” given the excitement caused by Makoni’s entry into the presidential race. The third Scenario, or Scenario Three, I have predicted that, once again, Zanu (PF) would retain political power but quickly offer to forge a GNU with the MDC. Under this scenario, Robert Mugabe would promise to step down from active politics in a short while. I have argued that this third scenario is “somewhat unlikely” except through the resumption of mediation by the SADC.
Scenario Four envisages an MDC win and assumption of political power, and therefore regime change. I postulate that under this scenario, the MDC would invite reform minded members of Zanu (PF) to join a GNU or some such transitional authority for a specified period aimed at facilitating national reconciliation and economic reconstruction. The rating for this fourth scenario is “unlikely”.
Following some three weeks of rather lukewarm campaigning, I wish to revise these four scenarios rather drastically on the basis of what seems to be obtaining now in the nation, especially on the campaign trail. It would appear now to me that Scenario Four has attained the status of “very likely”. In other words, the MDC is now very likely to win the 2008 presidential and parliamentary elections. There is even a possibility that Morgan Tsvangirai could win an outright majority during the first round, and there might not be any need for a run-off.
Scenario Two is likely to remain at the “somewhat likely” level given the limited political support that Simba Makoni seems to be receiving from the electorate so far. The Zanu (PF) heavies that are alleged to be supporting or sponsoring Makoni have either grown cold feet, or have decided to wait until they see which way the ping ball will fall before they go public. This has been an unfortunate development for the Makoni campaign, which is now visibly limping almost uncontrollably.
There will be no change with regards to Scenario Three, which remains “somewhat unlikely”. Perhaps the most drastic adjustment we have to make is that Scenario One collapses to the “unlikely ” rating given the odds against Mugabe as clearly demonstrated by the lack of public support that he seems to be receiving. The poor old man has had to resort to force-marching school children and poor people to his rallies in order to get a semblance of an audience. His speeches are replete with insults levelled against his political rivals. He persists on silly meaningless and false accusations of foreign sponsorship for his opponents and the usual rhetoric that he actually believes to be the truth, much to the amusement of his listeners.
Let us wait and see what the last few days of campaigning will bring before we revisit these scenarios one more time before the elections. As for now, the revised line-up of the scenarios is that Scenario One becomes Scenario Four. Scenario Four becomes Scenario One, while Scenarios Two and Three remain as they were in the original formulation. Where in the world is Arthur Mutambara?
Post published in: Opinions