The others are not so promising – in one scenario
Mugabe wins by rigging and fear and carries on, appointing a minority
government and using the powers of the presidency to govern in the same way
as he is managing the affairs of State today. A third option is that he will
win and then retire – handing power to a chosen successor from the ranks of
the Zanu PF who would then start to implement reforms but protecting those
who have participated in the present regime and securing their assets.
Under each of these scenarios there would be consequences. If we assume the
second scenario becomes a reality then we can predict with some certainty
what conditions will be like – there will be no international assistance and
some of existing aid might well be withdrawn. Inflation – now at over 1
million per cent will continue to surge, reaching unprecedented levels
within 3 months. Most likely this will be accompanied by a sharp increase in
the flight of both people and capital and we can expect that the situation
in South Africa will deteriorate even further. At this point several other
possibilities present themselves – a coup against Mugabe, the collapse of
the regime and anarchy is also possible. Whatever happens the outcome will
simply make things worse.
If they manage to wrangle option 3 and this might well be the real game plan
of the JOC and its external masters. Then it very much depends on who takes
over and when. They would have to move fast – difficult just after an
election, and the incoming leadership would have to clearly demonstrate its
capacity to implement the reforms that are necessary to get inflation under
control and some kind of recovery under way. Not impossible, but very
difficult as the new leadership is unlikely to unscramble the bad egg of
agriculture and reverse the recent changes in legislation that is crippling
mining and industrial recovery. Donors and multilaterals are unlikely to
step up to the plate any time soon and without them it seems unlikely that
we could feed the country or stabilize the economy at large.
So we are left with option 1. The main concern here is how do we get there
and what will be the reaction of the security chiefs and the senior players
in Zanu PF? I have no doubt about the people; the present wave of political
violence unleashed by Zanu PF on the people is counterproductive. It is
being translated into anger – both in the MDC and among the general
population. This makes the situation worse for existing power brokers as it
is now most unlikely that the MDC leadership will entertain any sort of
amnesty for them under the new dispensation – their options have narrowed
significantly in recent weeks – mainly because of their own intransigence.
I would expect therefore, that in a free and fair run off, Mugabe would be
trounced by Morgan Tsvangirai – beaten most likely by more than two thirds.
The main threat to such an outcome is in the way the election process is
managed – still totally under the control and management of Zanu PF through
the JOC and the ZEC. Standing between them and a free and fair outcome are
the region who are obligated to deploy observers not only to watch the run
off itself but also the run up to the election. We want them here right away
and we want them deployed to those areas where the violence is worse.
The other element that stands in the way of such an outcome is the MDC. They
are trying to cripple the electoral capacity of the MDC in every way – many
of our leadership in the front line have been killed, abducted, beaten and
generally harassed. They are working in every field to reduce our capacity
to campaign and win the run off – radio stations are being jammed,
newspapers burned (yesterday we had 60 000 copies of the Zimbabwean plus the
vehicle they was in burned in the Midlands) and journalists harassed and
worse.
Only the MDC and its election agents can stop the rigging of this election –
no one else has either the capacity or the legal right to do so. So our
capacity to fund and support that operation (it is a massive undertaking) is
crucial. The JOC is making sure that no stone is left unturned in their
efforts to block funds and other resources reaching the MDC from any
quarter.
But lets assume the MDC is able to control the rigging – and we get a
majority vote for Morgan, what will then happen? We saw what happened last
time – they simply prevaricated until eventually they were forced to
announce a result that was patently false and force a run off. That process
was protected by Mr.Mbeki of South Africa who not only went along with the
masquerade but also endorsed the call for a run off and has subsequently
made the spurious claim that the solutions to the crisis lay in the hands of
the Zimbabwe people themselves. His intelligence resources here have told
him what the real situation is and he simply chooses to ignore it and
continues with the crude political fabrications of Zanu PF.
This time there are no easy solutions for Mbeki, if the MDC wins, the region
has no option but to endorse the outcome and insist on a transfer of power.
In recent weeks elements in Zanu PF and in South Africa have been
desperately trying to get negotiations going on some form of national unity
government. This would be the easy way out for Mbeki, as it would ensure the
full compliance of the military in such an accord. However for the MDC this
could only be considered if as the first step, Mugabe retired and announced
that he was accepting the outcome of the elections on the 29th March and
handing over to Morgan Tsvangirai. This is not going to happen and this
route or easy option is not a possibility.
We are therefore left with the hard reality – can the region enforce a
constitutional process resulting in the full transfer of power from Zanu PF
to the MDC because our own Court system and even the State machinery itself,
is incapable of such a transition without military resistance. I personally
think it can but South Africa holds the keys. I doubt that the rank and file
in the military or the Police would accept a coup against the constitution
and the electoral results. I doubt that the region or the AU would accept
that outcome or reaction. I think a transition would take place.
Under these circumstances I would expect very dramatic policy and other
changes to emerge within days, I would expect inflation to be fully
controlled within 6 months and for basic needs to be covered within 3
months. After that the stabilisation and reconstruction process will get
underway and will, within a year be superceded by rapid economic growth and
recovery. Such an outcome would have immediate impacts on the region as a
whole but especially on South Africa. For that country these changes could
not become at a more important time. South Africa will itself be engaged in
a transitional process – from the Mbeki era to new ANC leadership and maybe
even a restructuring of political forces in South Africa. While this is
going on it would bring much needed stability and enhanced growth to the
South African economy.
It’s time to back sanity and to finally defeat tyranny.
Eddie Cross
Post published in: News