Instead of wringing their hands mediators and diplomats are now pushing for a transitional administration, or Government of National Unity (GNU), proposed by the International Crisis Group (ICG) on May 21.
Faced with a de facto military junta wreaking terror on Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) supporters throughout Zimbabwe’s rural constituencies and Mugabe admitting that he and his Zanu (PF) party have lost control of the military, both leaders now appear prepared to negotiate an 11th-hour deal to restore peace and the rule of law within the country’s borders, and curbing the uncontrolled mayhem of so-called war veterans and other thugs enlisted by the military.
Preliminary talks were held in the South African capital, Pretoria, on May 30 and 31 between Tendai Biti and Elton Mangoma (MDC-T), Welshman Ncube and Priscillah Misihairabwi (MDC-M), Patrick Chinamasa and Nicholas Goche (Zanu (PF) and President Thabo Mbeki’s advisors Frank Chikane amd Mojanko Gumbi, who met the three parties separately. Negotiations continued this week with Mbeki’s point man on Zimbabwe, Sydney Mafumadi, also in the frame, having visited Harare recently.
The ICG line, however, underlines recent comments from Mbeki, former Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda and Simba Makoni, the third candidate in Zimbabwe’s March 29 Presidential poll.
Makoni, Mugabe’s former finance minister, told journalists in Johannesburg on June 9: I can confirm that there are communications between and among Zimbabwean leaders at various levels and these communications have to do with solving the crisis. It’s a process that needs urgency and needs to be undertaken at the highest level possible in the shortest time.
They are reported to be proposing a deal based on the post-election African solution in Kenya under which Mugabe would remain president, however, Tsvangirai would hold Zimbabwe’s reins of power as prime minister. Ironically, this could mark a return to the post-Lancaster House administrative status quo thrashed out in 1979.
Mugabe may just find this ceremonial role acceptable, having had his powers torn from his grip by the repressive military junta. Furthermore, he has lost considerable support among many African leaders, especially most of those in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) who have to cope with the continuing influx of Zimbawean refugees fleeing torture and murder.
During recent weeks Tsvangirai has delivered conflicting statements on a transitional government. Launching the MDC’s Restore Hope campaign he told the parliamentary caucus: In the spirit of moving our country forward, let us seek out those peaceful members of Zanu (PF) whose eyes are open to the disastrous state of our nation. Let us listen to their views in where we have policy agreement.
Then in a press statement on June 10 Tsvangirai said: There has been growing momentum on the question of a government of national unity. Speculation is rife on this issue with some saying negotiations taking place. Others say the agreement has been signed. Nothing can be further from the truth. Since the announcement of the election date for a run off, no one can change that date unless Robert Mugabe concedes defeat. It therefore means that a government of national unity negotiated before the run off does not arise.
Tsvangirai added that the Kenyan model was not an option.
History, however, suggests that any GNU in Zimbabwe, which includes Mugabe and his then right hand man, Emmerson Mnangagwa – and architect of the present terror campaign – is fraught with danger and one only has to return to the turbulent mid-1980s to understand why.
Joshua Nkomo and his ZAPU party were accused of arming and supporting dissidents in Matabeleland. Mugabe and Mnangagwa unleashed the notorious North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade led by Perence Shiri – one of today’s military junta.
Up to 20 000 Matabele are reported to have been murdered between 1982 and 1987.
After fleeing into exile Nkomo, in a bid to end the bloodshed, opened negotiations and returned in December 1987 to sign the Unity Accord, under which he agreed to abolish ZAPU. He signed his own political death warrant.
According to Richard Bowden, director of the Royal African Society, Zanu (PF) is riven by factions.
The unpaid Armed Forces and police could break up into pro and anti-Mugabe factions within the party. Some may support the MDC. As the Armed Forces disintegrate, warlords take over local areas. Zimbabwe begins to look like Somalia, Bowden suggested in The Times on June 9.
In another scenario he suggests that defection of a key Mugabe ally, such as Gideon Gono, could tip the balance in favour of Tsvangiari and a transitional administration.
Now he is of no further use, but, rich and famous, he may not see a future with Mr. Mugabe. His defection breaches the wall of the fantasy castle and reality crashed in. Mr. Mugabe and his chief lieutenants seek refuge in Equatorial Guinea and a government of national unity is set up.
 Likelihood? Impossible to say. But Southern Africa has been known to produce miracles before, Bowden adds.
Post published in: Opinions