Sixty three percent of voters would have voted for Tsvangirai, giving him an undisputed win. In 1980 Zanu (PF) won the first democratic election in the new Zimbabwe by 57% – which was acclaimed internationally as a landslide.
The countrywide poll, carried out in the last week by a leading independent researcher who cannot be named for security reasons, found that the 63% of respondents intending to vote for Tsvangirai was remarkable consistent with assessments of the true support for the MDC at the last election.
The parameters of the poll were necessarily circumscribed by the prevailing security climate but the low number of those refusing to comment or not intending to vote is striking.
Political analysts said the figures make sense.
A total of 2758 individuals were polled, of whom only 104 (0.4%) said they would not comment or vote. 974 (63%) said they would vote for Tsvangirai. The poor showing by Mugabe, 37%, is despite the widespread reign of terror and the denial of food aid to MDC supporters by the state over the past two months, coupled with the extensive Zanu (PF) patronage system which has seen the economy destroyed through corruption and wholesale theft of state resources by Zanu fatcats.
The votes would have been fairly divided between the different provinces, with Tsvangirai having the most support in Harare and the least in Mashonaland East. Support for Mugabe was highest in Mashonaland and lowest on Matebeleland.
Prov          n(U)        RF/WV      n(F)     n(MT)     n(RM)        MT%         RM%
Hre               278          13         265        178         95             64             36             Â
Chit             266           08          258       173          85            67           33
Byo             256           09         247       175          72            71           29
Masv            246           05        240       170           70            71          29
Mane          265            06         259       163           76            63          37
Midl             254           12         242       148           94             61          39
Mat NÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 229Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 10Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 219Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 162Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 57Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 74Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 26
Mat SÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 221Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 10Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 211Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 160Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 51Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 76Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 24
Mash WÂ Â Â Â Â Â 258Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 12Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 246Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 50Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 50
Mash CÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 246Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 10Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 236Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 116Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 51Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 49
Mash EÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â 239Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 09Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 230Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 116Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 50Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 50
Total         2758        104       2653      1687      974            698       402
Mean %Â Â Â Â Â 100%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 04%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 96%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 63%Â Â Â Â Â Â 37%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 63Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 37
n (umber) U (niversal)
RF/WV (refusal/Wont Vote)
n (umber) MT (Morgan Tsvangirai)
n (umber) RM (Robert Mugabe)