On the
one side is the secret cabal that has run Zimbabwe since the
quasi-military
coup in 2002, when the military chiefs stated that they would
not salute Mr.
Tsvangirai if he were elected President. On the other side is
a peculiar
coalition of forces, led by Mr. Tsvangirai but including elements
of Zanu PF,
civil society and even the armed forces themselves.
The Cabal was
noticeably absent when the Prime Minister was sworn in – as
were a number of
other key players, this was not a coincidence. The
Commander of the Air Force
has not been seen since the assassination attempt
on him in Shamva, the
others were all busy making mischief. The most serious
issue remains what
role is the State President playing in this drama, if
anything.
But
however it is described we are seeing a situation where a small group
is
fighting back and trying to bring about a breakdown of the
transitional
government which has just been sworn in and on Monday will start
to take
charge. The three key elements in this shadowy force are – the
Reserve Bank
(under Gono), the Ministry of Justice and the Attorney Generals
Office and
the Military and Police. Gono is the paymaster and is funding this
fight
back using the very considerable resources at his command, the Ministry
of
Justice – or elements in the Ministry, is providing the
"legal"
justification and the armed forces, including senior elements in the
Police,
are executing the strategy and providing the muscle.
The legal
ruse is the allegation – now totally discredited, that elements of
the MDC
are involved in "treason" in that they planned the violent over
throw of the
State. In fact the real situation is that it is the armed
forces chiefs
themselves who are trying to do so and in so doing are
committing treason
against the State. For, no matter how you construct the
transitional
government, Zimbabwe now has a democratically elected
government that is
constitutional and legitimate. Any attempt therefore, to
over throw the State
by force, is an act of treason.
This fight is most clearly illustrated by
the detention of Roy Bennett at
Charles Prince Airport yesterday. Roy was
hauled off the plane, bundled into
a car and then driven at high speed to
Mutare. The vehicles in which he was
transported were followed by volunteers
so that he could not just disappear
in the same way that 42 others have in
recent weeks.
When the news reached the Prime Minister he was already in
consultation with
regional leaders on another crisis regarding the
appointment of Zanu PF
Ministers and the matter was discussed. Senior Zanu PF
Ministers agreed to
order that Roy be released. The President of South Africa
left the country
thinking that this had been done and a major diplomatic and
political crisis
(among many) averted. It was not so, whether or not such an
order was given,
the Police and the CIO did not release Roy, instead they
announced he was to
be charged with treason!
If the Ministers of State
Security and Home Affairs did give the order for
his release, then the
government agencies that are accountable to them did
not obey the order. If
they did not give the order, they lied to the South
African President and the
Prime Minister and are part of, what is, in
effect, a military coup. The
treatment of the 42 other abductees is further
evidence of this defiance of
the new order. They were clearly abducted
illegally, held illegally in
various State institutions, finally brought to
Court and charged with various
crimes involving absurd allegations, and
denied bail. A number are still
missing and are unaccounted for.
In one of his first actions, the Prime
Minister visited them in the High
Security Prison outside Harare and
instructed that 4 be taken immediately to
hospital for treatment. Two of the
four, including Jestina Mukoko are very
ill with life threatening symptoms,
they were then taken to hospital and in
the evening, they were taken by force
from the hospital back to prison in
clear defiance of the Prime Ministers
instructions.
Many other battles are being fought – the coup plotters
have people in key
places all over government and they are clearly working
together. The
question is can they win this struggle. I do not think so. They
are up
against the majority of the people, a democratically elected
government
negotiated with the support of the entire region and they must now
fight to
defend their positions from within government where they no longer
have
legal and political control. The key player to watch in this struggle
is
Gono. If he goes, then the flow of resources (except for illegal
resources
such as gold and diamond sales) will dry up and they will not be
able to
sustain their fight. If he stays, the new government will be
seriously
weakened, as they cannot then secure the backing and support of
important
financial players who simply will not work with the Bank whilst he
is still
in charge.
While this is going on the looting of State assets
and resources continue.
Right now they are trying to do a deal with a local
firm to sell Tel One – a
major cell phone operator that is State owned, for
US$200 million, which
they want to use to support US dollar denominated
vouchers to pay the Civil
Service with, so that they can at least buy food.
The Prime Minister has
instead instructed that the Civil Service be paid in
hard currency –
Chinamasa defied the Prime Minister last week and insisted
they go ahead
with the deal even though after Friday he was no longer
Minister of Finance.
As for me? The Prime Minister announced on Monday
that I was his choice for
Minister of State Enterprise and then on Friday the
post was switched to a
friend and colleague, Sam Nkomo. A victim of the
present constitutional
dispensation where Ministers must be Members of
Parliament and carry over
into their government posts, their political
constituency. In the American
system, the positions of Secretaries of State
are selected from outside the
political system and the President can – as is
the case with the Obama
government, select from his whole society, the people
to run his government.
Under the Westminster system no such clear distinction
exists between the
executive and Parliament.
The American system has
the advantage that Ministers (the Secretaries) are
selected not only for
their political influence and experience but also for
their technical
background and experience. They essentially are managers of
the Ministries
they run. Under our system the process is much more political
and the PM has
to balance contending interests politically. In my case, I
was a victim of
the process. I am sorry – I would have loved to have had the
chance to help
make this deal work and to get whatever piece of government I
was responsible
for, functioning again. But it is not to be and its back to
making my own
living and working in Parliament to supervise government and
look after the
public interest.