Tsvangirai’s absence may leave void in Zimbabwe

The effect Prime Minister’s Morgan Tsvangirai’s absence will have on

Zimbabwe’s fraught political system when much of the population is suffering

from hunger and disease is a matter of speculation. He spent months in

Botswana last year, fearing for his life at the height of a standoff with

President Robert Mugabe – the man with whom he formed a joint government

last month.

Tsvangirai arrived in Botswana on Saturday, a day after the crash, according

to a spokesman for Botswana’s foreign ministry. State media in Zimbabwe had

said only that Tsvangirai had left for treatment, and his party had refused

publicly to specify where he had gone.

Botswana President Seretse Ian Khama has been one of the few African leaders

to openly criticize Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from

Britain in 1980 and is accused of destroying its economy and trampling on

democratic and human rights.

Tsvangirai’s coalition government with Mugabe has been rocky from the start.

Mugabe has treated Tsvangirai as a junior partner, declaring at Feb. 28

celebrations for his 85th birthday: "I am still in control and hold

executive authority, so nothing much has changed."

And Mugabe may use Tsvangirai’s absence to further tighten his grip.

Tsvangirai, though, is likely to benefit from sympathy at home and abroad.

Tsvangirai has two deputy prime ministers who, like him, are opposition

leaders – Thokozani Khupe and Arthur Mutambara. In addition, Tsvangirai’s

No. 2 in his Movement for Democratic Change party, Tendai Biti, holds the

key government post of finance minister. Biti, a sharp-tongued lawyer, has

meetings in the coming week with an International Monetary Fund team to

review Zimbabwe’s financial prospects and discuss addressing its economic

and humanitarian crises.

Key potential foreign donors such as the United States and Britain have been

waiting to see how much power Tsvangirai will wield in the unity government

before stepping in with major development help. Now, their wait is likely to

be longer.

Tsvangirai was criticized for spending long periods out of the country last

year, even when it became clear it was out of fear for his safety. This

time, his decision to seek medical care in a country where he feels

comfortable will be seen in the context of Zimbabwe’s catastrophic hospital

system.

Zimbabweans also may be willing to give him time to recover from the loss of

his wife of 31 years. While Susan Tsvangirai did not play a prominent

political role, she was by many accounts an important confidante and source

of support for her husband.

The question, though, is how long Zimbabweans can be patient as they cope

with the world’s highest official inflation rate, a hunger crisis that has

left most of its people dependent on foreign handouts and a cholera epidemic

blamed on the collapse of a once-enviable health and sanitation system.

The government-run Sunday Mail quoted Nelson Chamisa, a spokesman for the

prime minister’s Movement for Democratic Change party, as saying Tsvangirai

left after consultations with his family, party and government "for further

medical examination and attention just to make sure that we have exercised

due diligence. We are not leaving any medical stone unturned."

Chamisa would not say when Tsvangirai would return, telling the Mail that

"is going to be a function of the progress that is going to be made in the

examination."

Zimbabwe’s long history of political violence blamed on Mugabe’s forces –

including several assassination attempts on Tsvangirai – is fueling

speculation Friday’s car crash was not an accident.

A statement posted on the prime minister’s Web site Saturday said that

"although it is to soon to draw conclusions, available facts suggest it was

an accident." But Tsvangirai’s party has called for an investigation, and

said the crash could have been avoided had Tsvangirai had the kind of

motorcade that travels with Mugabe. Since becoming prime minister,

Tsvangirai usually travels in a convoy of four or five cars with his own and

government guards, while Mugabe travels with dozens of cars and motorcycles.

The coalition was formed after a dispute over presidential elections nearly

a year ago and months of state-sponsored violence against MDC members and

independent political activists.

Tsvangirai was headed to a weekend rally in his home region when his

four-wheel-drive vehicle collided with a truck carrying U.S. aid on the

outskirts of the capital on a notoriously dangerous road. State television

said the truck swerved on an uneven stretch of the road, which, like many in

Zimbabwe, is poorly maintained. Tsvangirai’s spokesman said the car carrying

the prime minister, his wife, a driver and a bodyguard sideswiped the truck

and rolled at least three times.

Tsvangirai, who turns 57 Tuesday, formed the MDC a decade ago. As it emerged

as a serious political challenger, Tsvangirai repeatedly faced the wrath of

Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party. He has been beaten and was once nearly thrown from a

10th floor window by suspected government thugs.

this report.

Associated Press (AP)