ANC takes early lead in South African election

Early results showed the African National Congress with 62 percent,
battering the hopes of the Congress of the People (COPE) party, formed
by ANC dissidents, that it might pose the first real challenge since
the end of apartheid in 1994.

Zuma portrays himself as a champion of the poor, and for many voters
the ANC’s credentials from the fight against white minority rule still
outweigh frustrations with its failure to tackle widespread crime,
poverty and AIDS.

COPE won only 7.6 percent of the early votes counted. The biggest
challenge came from the Democratic Alliance – led by a white woman –
with 20.7 percent.

Opposition parties hoped to at least deprive the ANC of the two-thirds
parliamentary majority that lets it change the constitution and
entrench its hold, but with barely a tenth of the votes counted it was
too early to say if that was the case.

"If I were to make a prediction now, I would think the ANC would be in
the mid-sixties, just below two-thirds," said former opposition leader
Tony Leon.

The final result is not expected before Friday but there is little
doubt the 67-year-old Zuma will become president only three weeks after
managing to get prosecutors to drop an eight-year-old corruption case
that had tainted his reputation.

Among his first tasks will be reassuring foreign investors who fear his
trade union allies will push him towards the left at a time the
continent’s biggest economy could already be in recession.

He has repeatedly said there will be no nasty surprises in store for
investors, and with the economy possibly already in its first recession
for 17 years, his room for policy manoeuvre is limited.

Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, a market favourite, is expected to stay for now.

Zuma has also pledged to tackle the rampant violent crime which could mar next year’s hosting of the soccer World Cup.

Election officials estimated the turnout in Wednesday’s vote at 76
percent — the same as 2004, when the ANC won 70 percent of the vote.
Most analysts see that slipping because of the new opposition challenge.

"We are entering a post-liberation era. People are talking about new
issues and challenges and there’s also a new generation that’s not
attached to the liberation struggle," said independent political
analyst David Monyae.

In an indication of at least a localised shift against the ANC, the
Democratic Alliance for the first time defeated the ruling party on
Robben Island, where Nelson Mandela, Zuma and other political prisoners
were held during apartheid.

Police said the election was largely peaceful, although COPE said one
of its officials was shot dead in what it believed to be a political
killing.

Reuters