In a new report on possible impact of the economic meltdown on global
security, the London-based EIU said the level of risk in Zimbabwe had
been heightened by widespread poverty that is expected to deepen with
the global downturn.
The EIU report says the Mugabe regime survived a cocktail of problems
such as the "almost complete implosion of the economy, election rigging
and the oppression of large sections of the population so it may yet be
able to ride out the latest threat.
A constitutional review process, rampant corruption in government and
a general breakdown in the rule of law has deepened Zimbabwe’s exposure
to social and political tension putting at risk the stability of the
coalition government, the EIU report says.
The EIU said formation of a unity government between President Robert
Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai had helped stem the crisis.
But it warned that, to prevent a repeat (or worse) requires settlement
of long-term grievances, including land disputes, establishment of a
new constitutional dispensation and an end to the culture of impunity.
The EIU ranked Zimbabwe as the most vulnerable to political upheaval
with an index score of 8.8. The index measures vulnerability on a scale
of zero (no vulnerability)
to 10 (highest vulnerability). Neighbouring South Africa, with an instability index of seven, is the 38th most vulnerable.
The unity government immediately raised hopes Zimbabwe could finally
emerge from its crisis but the reluctance of rich Western countries to
provide financial support to the Harare government has sparked fears it
could fail.
Western nations – that continue to give humanitarian aid – insist they
want the unity government to submit a credible economic recovery
programme, implement genuine and comprehensive political and economic
reforms before they can lift sanctions and provide direct financial
support to Harare.