The shifting balance of power

Current Voting Strengths in Parliament
House of Assembly
The numbers of MPs to which each party was entitled based on the election results.
MDC-T: 100 MPs, MDC-M :10, Zanu(PF) 95, Independent 1
Current voting strengths allowing for gains from extra seats allocated by the GPA/Amendment No.19, less vacancies and suspensions which have occurred since then: MDC-T: 97 now [2 seats gained from GPA minus 1 vacancy [Speakers seat] and minus 4 suspended members who cant vote]
MDC-M: 11 now [1 seat gained from GPA]
Zanu(PF): 99 [Only 98 were sworn in, as Eprem Mushoriwa who won the Gokwe-Gumunyu seat died before the swearing in]
Projected numbers to which the party strengths could fall within the next few months: MDC-T: 87 Projected Minus 11 [7 at risk from suspensions plus 3 from MPs appointed as governors]
MDC-M: 8 Projected Minus 3 [if their 3 expelled MPs lose their seats]
95 now [1seat gained from GPA but this has not been filled, this is a nominated seat and could be filled at any time, minus 4 deaths]
Zanu(PF): 94 Projected 2 at risk from suspensions but 1 GPA extra seat still to be filled]

Senate election results
MDC-T: 24,
MDC-M: 6,
Zanu(PF) 63, including appointments – 30 Elected, 5 Appointed by the President, 10 Governors, 18 Chiefs.
Current voting strengths
MDC-T: 27 now [gained 4 nominated Senators from GPA, less 1 death [Senator Kombayi]
MDC-M: 8 now [gained 2 nominated Senators from GPA]
Zanu(PF): 59 now [gained 1 nominated seat from GPA for VP [but this is not yet filled] less 3 constituency seat vacancies [1 for Senate Presidents former seat, and 2 for Provincial Governors former seats] and 1 death [Chief Bidi]

Projected voting strengths
MDC-T: 32 Projected with 5 gained from appointed governors
MDC-M: 9 Projected with 1 gained from appointed governor
Zanu(PF): 55 Projected plus two from filling vacant GPA nominated seat and from replacing the Chief and minus 6 from loss of 6 Governors.
These figures do not include the Attorney General he is an ex officio non-voting member of both Houses i.e. he has the right to sit and speak in both Houses but he has no vote. All other members of Parliament are voting members whether elected, appointed, nominated, ex officio, constituency or non-constituency, chiefs or provincial governors.
For the combined MDCs to have a marginal majority in the Senate now, 13 Chiefs would have to sever their allegiance to Zanu(PF) and vote with the MDCs. Working on projected voting strengths, 8 Chiefs would have to vote with the MDCs to give them a marginal majority.
Projected Voting Strengths of MDC-T in House of Assembly could drop further, depending on outcomes of court cases
There are a further 8 MDC seats at risk as 8 MDC-T Parliamentarians are facing criminal charges which could carry a sentence of more than 6 months 7 in the House of Assembly and 1 in the Senate.

Provision for extra seats
The GPA/Constitution Amendment No.19 provided for extra seats as follows:
2 for the 2 Vice-Presidents,1 for the Prime Minister, 2 for the 2 Deputy Prime Ministers. All these five seats are extra ex officio [with vote] seats in the House of Assembly, but the agreement goes on to provide that if any of the top executive already have seats in Parliament they keep those seats but their party can nominate a person to a non-constituency seat in the relevant House.
6 Senate Seats to balance the 5 Zanu(PF) Presidential Appointed Senators, 4 seats in the Senate to be nominated by MDC-T, 2 seats in the Senate to be nominated by MDC-M.
These seats have been distributed as follows: House of Assembly – 2 MDC-T: 1 for PM Tsvangirai and 1 nominated non-constituency seat as DPM Khupe already had an elected constituency seat which she keeps [This nominated non-constituency seat has been filled by Minister Gorden Moyo]; 1 MDC-M seat for DPM Mutambara; 1 Zanu(PF) nominated non-constituency seat, as VP Mujuru already had an elected constituency seat in the House of Assembly which she keep [This nominated non-constituency seat is still vacant]
Senate: 4 MDC-T nominated non-constituency seats [1 went to Deputy Minister Tichaona Mudzingwa, 1 to Deputy Minister Sesel Zvidzai, 1 to Deputy Minister Roy Bennett and 1 to Morgan Komichi]
2 MDC-M nominated non-constituency seats [1 went to Minister Welshman Ncube, 1 to Minister Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga]
1 Zanu(PF) nominated non-constituency seat as VP Msika already had an appointed Senate seat. [This nominated non-constituency seat is still vacant]

Vacant seats 4 MDC-T MPs suspended
These gains must be balanced against the 12 seats that have become vacant in the
House of Assembly 6 – 1 to replace the Speaker Lovemore Moyo constituency seat Matobo North, Matabeleland South; 1 Zanu(PF) nominated seat still vacant [allocated by the GPA in lieu of VP Mujurus seat]; 4 Deaths – Ephrem Mushoriwa Zanu(PF) Gokwe-Gumunyu, Midlands, Cletus Mabaranga Zanu(PF) Guruve North, Mashonaland Central, Elliot Manyika Zanu(PF) Bindura North, Mashonaland Central, Charles Pemhenayi Zanu(PF) Mutare North, Manicaland.
Six seats have become vacant in the Senate 1 to replace Senate President Edna Madzongwe Zanu(PF), 2 constituency seats freed up by Zanu(PF) Governors Titus Maluleke Chiredzi, and Jaison Machaya Gokwe South, 1 Zanu(PF) nominated seat that is yet to be filled [allocated by the GPA in lieu of VP Msikas seat], 2 Deaths Patrick Kombayi MDC-T constituency seat Gweru-Chirumanzu and elected Chief, Chief Bidi from Matabeleland South.
As well as these vacancies, four MPs, all from MDC-T, have been suspended following convictions and imposition of sentences of 6 months or more:
Matthias Mlambo, Chipinge East, Manicaland convicted of inciting public violence sentenced to 10 months in prison; Meki Makuyana, Chipinge South, Manicaland convicted of kidnapping a minor sentenced to 12 months in prison; Shuah Mudiwa, Mutare West, Manicaland convicted of kidnapping a minor sentenced to 7 years in prison; Ernest Mudavanhu, Zaka North, Masvingo convicted on charges of abusing subsidised farming inputs sentenced to 12 months in prison.
Some press reports have caused confusion by saying that there have been either five or six suspensions. This is probably caused by the fact that other MPs have been convicted, but unless they receive a sentence of over 6 months they are not suspended.
The suspended MPs have appealed against their convictions and sentences. Only if these are successful will their suspensions be lifted. Mlambo has appealed to the High Court against his suspension; the case has been heard, but judgement reserved.
Lynette Karenyi, MDC-T MP, Chimanimani West, was convicted in January of forgery of a signature on her nomination paper, fined and given a suspended 20 day prison sentence. This sentence does not result in her automatic suspension from Parliament, but the magistrate declared her seat forfeit, which was outside his jurisdiction, and his declaration has been rejected by Parliament. Karenyi has appealed against her conviction and sentence in order to clear her name, but in the meantime her defeated opponent in the March 2008 poll has instituted High Court proceedings to unseat her.

More changes likely as 8 MDC-T MPs face charges
Further changes are likely to occur if the Governorships are redistributed in early September as proposed. MDC-T would gain 5 in the Senate. Their candidates have already been named as: Lucia Matibenga, Tose Sansole, Seiso Moyo, James Makore and Julius Magaramombe.
Zanu(PF) would lose 6 seats in the Senate. The outgoing governors are likely to be David Karimanzira [Harare], Cain Mathema [Bulawayo], Angeline Masuku [Matabeleland South], Thokozile Mathuthu [Matabeleland North], Christopher Mushowe [Manicaland] and Titus Maluleke [Masvingo]

MDC-M would gain 1 in the Senate [candidate not yet named].
In the House of Assembly MDC-T would have 3 vacant seats if they appoint Matibenga, Sansole and Moyo as Governors, as they are all MPs. There is also the risk of further suspensions as a further 8 MDC-T MPs, one senator and seven members of the House of Assembly, are facing charges carrying potential prison sentences in excess of 6 months.
They are: Roy Bennett, nominated Senator on a charge of possession of arms, on bail and awaiting trial; Blessing Chebundo, Kwekwe Central on a charge of rape on bail and awaiting trial; Trevor Saruwaka, Mutasa Central, on a violence charge on bail and awaiting judgment; Hamandishe Maramwidze, Gutu North; Heya Shoko, Bikita West; Edmore Marima, Bikita East; Tachiona Mharadza, Masvingo West; Evelyn Masaiti, Dzivaresekwa, – these five are all on bail awaiting judgement after being charged with abusing subsidised farming inputs, similar to the charges on which Ernest Mudavanhu was convicted and sentenced to 12 months in prison. Ransome Makamure, charged for the same offence, was acquitted this week and is not included in the figures.
Two Zanu(PF) members of the House of Assembly are also facing inputs scam charges Tranos Huruba, Chivi North, and Ivene Dzingirayi, Chivi South.
This week two more MDC-T MPs were picked up by police Thamsanqa Mahlangu MP, Nkulumane and Stewart Garadhi, MP, Chinhoyi. They are not included in the at risk figures as Mahlangu, though in remand prison awaiting trial, is not likely to be facing a sentence of more that 6 months, and Garadhi was released without charge.
Seats due for by-elections MDC still in control.. but for how much longer?
There are 12 vacancies in Parliament and 10 of these have to filled by by-elections. In the case of the 4 suspended MPs, whether or not there will be by-elections is dependent on the result of court cases. But the remaining by-elections are still within the control of both the MDCs.
In the context of the MDCs potentially losing their combined majority, as it is, it seems unwise to risk these extra by-elections. Matabeleland seats have been considered safe MDC seats, but with the re-emergence of ZAPU and its increasing membership this could change.
In addition, with the evidence of increased violence and setting up of new youth militia bases, other constituency seats which may have been regarded as safe may be subjected to violence and intimidation.
It is also strange that MDC has not been pushing for by-elections for at least the present 9 constituency vacancies to take place before September 15, when the GPA agreement that the three parties will not stand against each other falls away. They are cutting it very fine – even if by-elections are gazetted immediately it will be difficult to complete them before September 15. Under the Electoral Act at least 5 weeks must elapse between gazetting of the notice calling a by-election and polling day 2 weeks for nominations, 3 weeks for ZEC preparation and campaigning by candidates.
There are 12 vacancies and 10 of these have to be filled by by-elections. The other 2 vacancies are to be filled by nomination by Zanu(PF), 1 in the Senate and 1 in the House of Assembly. Of the 10 by-elections, 1 is for a chief who will be elected by the Matabeleland South Provincial Assembly of Chiefs. This leaves 9 constituency by-elections, as follows:

House of Assembly:
Matobo North, Matabeleland South, ex Lovemore Moyo, MDC-T
Gokwe-Gumunyu, Midlands, ex Ephrem Mushoriwa, Zanu(PF)
Guruve North, Mashonaland Central, ex Cletus Mabaranga, Zanu(PF)
Bindura North, Mashonaland Central, ex Elliot Manyika, Zanu(PF)
Mutare North, Manicaland, ex Charles Pemhenayi, Zanu(PF)

Senate:
Chegutu, Mashonaland West, ex Edna Madzongwe, Zanu(PF)
Gweru-Chirumanzu, Midlands, ex Patrick Kombayi, MDC-T
Chiredzi, Masvingo, ex Titus Maluleke, Zanu(PF)
Gokwe South, Midlands, ex Jaison Machaya, Zanu(PF).
If the four suspended MPs who have appealed against their convictions and sentences lose their appeals, they will lose their Parliamentary seats and the vacancies will have to be filled by by-elections.
If MDC-T appoint 3 Governors from the House of Assembly this will mean 3 more by-elections.
If the 3 MDC-M MPs are expelled from Parliament this will mean 3 more by-elections.