HARARE - Zimbabwe is becoming more vulnerable to climatic changes, and local climatologists have predicted disastrous effects on the environment, agriculture and food security, health, water resources, economic activities, human migration and physical infrastructure. (Pictured:
Climate change is the alteration of the earth’s climate caused by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. This eventually leads to global warming. According to climatologists, if recent trends continue or accelerate as per scientific prediction, the earth’s temperature may rise by four to six degrees Celsius by 2100. Other causes of climate change are caused by the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and modern farming methods.
Zim not spared
Zimbabwe has not been spared climatic changes; in fact, the current dry spells affecting the country have been attributed to climate change. Dr Priscah Mugabe, Deputy Director of the Institute of Environmental Studies at the University of Zimbabwe, has noted the effects of climate change reflected in rainfall patterns in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2005. Mugabe said that there have been notable shifts in the onset of the rains, the increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, more tropical cyclones and increasingly intense mid-term dry spells.
She noted that there had been shifts in natural regions such as Chinhoyi, Chibero and their surroundings which were formerly in natural region 2 but have now been classified under natural region 3. The size of natural region 1 has been reduced, while natural region 2 has been pushed further east and natural region 3 has shifted slightly upwards. Kwekwe and surroundings now classified as natural region 4.
Dr Mugabe said that ecosystem changes were being dramatised by grasslands shifting to shrubby savannah and other biodiversity changes.
Agriculture and food security
On the agriculture and food security sector, crop yields in marginal zones have become more variable. Yields from rain-fed agriculture are expected to decline by up to 50 per cent by 2020. Mugabe said that climate change introduces greater variability in maize yields. “There is a strong likelihood that climate change will make natural region 4 a non-maize producing area,” she says.
Reduced livestock production is anticipated as a result of a reduced forage base for cattle as well as the increase of pests and diseases like tsetse flies and ticks. “A shift to smaller browsing animals like goats is anticipated,” Dr Mugabe said. A reduced productivity of crop-livestock systems of marginal rural areas is likely.
Health sector
On the health sector, an increase in malnutrition, with implications on child growth and development, has been anticipated. Also, it is likely that there will be an increase in the distribution of the malaria-bearing Anopheles gambiae mosquito has been. High elevation areas currently on the fringes of endemic malaria zones will be most susceptible to infestation.
Dr Mugabe said that the implication would be most notably felt in an increased burden on health care systems. On water resources, she said that the challenges of availability and accessibility were anticipated to particularly affect women. Reduced irrigation output would be exacerbated by other factors, for example deforestation and siltation. Changes in hydrology and run-off are very likely to occur.
Anticipated economic impacts include increased food prices, diversion of resources towards relief, loss of employment opportunities and compromised hydro-based industries. For example, at Lake Kariba from 1987 to 2005, the lake surface temperature rose by about 1 degree Celsius, significantly reducing kapenta fish yields.
On the Zambezi River, impacts have seen reduced flow affecting hydro-electricity generation, biodiversity, affected fish breeding conditions and tourism. Human migration is also being affected resulting in localized population concentrations posed by climate variability.
A new breed of refugees
Refugees are anticipated to migrate into new settlements seeking livelihoods and placing additional demands on infrastructure and ecosystem services. “A variety of migration patterns could thus emerge for example repetitive migrants and short term shock migrants with implications for ecosystems and land use alterations,” said Dr Mugabe. She added that physical infrastructure could fall prone to damage and destruction due to extreme events such as floods.
Millennium Development Goals (MDC) attainment will also be affected. For example, the eradication of extreme poverty is unlikely due to reduced agricultural production. Also, attaining primary education will be impossible due to gender imbalances and drop outs. Reducing child mortality will be an uphill task due to increased diseases and combating major diseases like HIV and AIDS will be a major problem due to increased pressures and food insecurity.
Dr Mugabe also said that there was need for institutional support for research to understand local risks, sensitivities and adaptation options in response to climate change. She said research on indigenous knowledge with science, gender variability and appropriate adaptation systems was recommended. Innovative technologies like water harvesting, soil water conservation and grain post harvest technologies have to be introduced including sending appropriate messages on extension, infrastructural development and disaster management.
She added that climate change in Zimbabwe was certain, unreliable and unpredictable. Dr Basile Tambashe, Country Representative for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Zimbabwe, said that climate change was not just about technology. “We have now reached a point where humanity is approaching the brink of disaster and Zimbabwe is beginning to feel the impact of climate change,” says Tambashe.
Lungowe Sepo Marongwe, an Agricultural Extension Official with the Ministry of Agriculture, said that agricultural productivity in Zimbabwe, especially in the smallholder sector, was very low. He noted that the negative impacts of farming, such as soil erosion and deforestation, were reducing yields even further.
Post published in: News