Constitutional reforms, MDCs only hope!

A key exercise to consult the public on what they wanted included in a new constitution was launched in Harare last Wednesday. Mugabe, now 86, has skillfully and brazenly clung on to power since Zimbabwes independence from Britain in 1980 but was forced into a coalition deal in September 2008 after his Zanu (PF) party failed to win earlier elections.

Political commentators said Mugabe, who was under pressure to equally share power with Tsvangirai when he was forced to sign the global political agreement (GPA) on September 15, 2008, had clawed back lost ground and his party now looked to be in total control with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) on the back foot.

Mugabes strategy has been to drag out the unity government, buying time to rebuild his faction-riddled Zanu (PF) and his unilateral actions have left the unity government in limbo while his opponents have at best been able to only give muffled responses. From the beginning Mugabe did not want this thing to work, he wanted to buy time and as you can see now he is back to his default mode, John Makumbe, a political analyst with the University of Zimbabwe and critic of Mugabes policies said.

Clearly what we are seeing is a situation where nothing else will move in as far as the outstanding issues are concerned. It is back to (South African President Jacob) Zuma to tell Mugabe in no uncertain terms that he has to abide by the terms of the GPA, said Makumbe. There is no guarantee that South Africa will break the deadlock though so the MDC has to take the game to Mugabe to force any concessions from him, he added.

But South Africa, which is one of the guarantors of Zimbabwes power-sharing agreement and currently preoccupied with hosting the soccer World Cup until next month, seems to be in no hurry to end the political deadlock afflicting its northern neighbour. Zuma will not be send officials to Harare anytime soon to help revive talks to end a political deadlock threatening the unity government, his international relations adviser Lindiwe Zulu said this week.

But it is not only Zuma who seems too busy to attend to his northern neighbours political stalemate. Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara, who are under pressure from their constituencies to take Mugabe head-on over the many outstanding issues, also seem deeply consumed by the demands of government bureaucracy. We seem to have entered a period of some lethargic political mode as it were, Eldred Masunungure, a leading political analyst said.

I dont see any hurry either from the principals or the facilitator. It could as well be that there is an acknowledgment that the there will not be any major changes to the current political matrix and the MDC maybe looking up to the constitutional outreach programme to gain some political capital, said Masunungure.

The coalition ran straight into problems almost from day one when police arrested the treasurer of Tsvangirais MDC party, Roy Bennett, in February 2009, shortly before he was to be sworn in as deputy minister of agriculture. Mugabe has refused to swear in Bennett even after the High Court acquitted him of the treason charges for which he was arrested. The state has appealed against Bennetts acquittal.

The veteran leader has also stoically refused to fire two top allies that he unilaterally appointed to the posts of attorney general and central bank governor in breach of the GPA that requires him to consult Tsvangirai and Mutambara when making such appointments. In addition, Mugabe has said restructuring of the armed forces was a non starter, signaling his fear to tinker with an armed force that has backed his three-decade rule. Mugabe, not one to shy away from controversy, last month opened a new front of conflict when he appointed new judges to the countrys High and Supreme Courts without consulting Tsvangirai or Mutambara.

The 86-year-old Mugabe, who accuses Tsvangirai of campaigning for imposition by Western countries of visa and financial sanctions against him and top officials of his Zanu (PF) party, says he will not change his stance on the growing list of disputes with the Premier unless the former opposition leader calls for lifting of the punitive measures. Tsvangirai denies responsibility for calling for lifting of sanctions and says instead Mugabe should allow democratic reforms in the country to persuade Western governments to scrap sanctions.

I think the constitution offers the MDC the best hope to try to get some political concessions, but they have to know they are up against a system that is totally opposed to democratisation, Makumbe said.

The outreach is already running eight months behind and is likely to be a hotly contested affair. Zimbabwe was scheduled to hold a referendum on the new constitution this month, but delays over political squabbling and funding has delayed the process, with analysts saying the referendum will likely take place sometime in 2011.