There have been some welcome developments during the past agricultural season, giving evidence of Zimbabwes continued potential as an agricultural country. But the sad reality is that production in most sectors continues to decline and many are still hungry. A visitor to the Harare Show last week might well have gained the impression that a general recovery is underway in the agricultural industry. 19 months into the transitional government it is perhaps timely to review just where we are in this vital sector of the economy. Historically, agriculture was always the main driver of economic growth in Zimbabwe contributing half of all exports and supporting 60 per cent of all industry and providing a third of all job opportunities.
Although the past season was not exceptional, in most of the country, farmers received adequate rainfall to produce a crop. A massive effort by international agencies saw 700 000 small holder farmers receive basic crop inputs and this saw a surge in grain production with local supplies reaching about half of local demand. A similar effort by the tobacco merchants and banks saw tobacco production double to over the key target of 100 000 tonnes. These were welcome developments and evidence of Zimbabwes continued potential as an agricultural country.
But the progress stopped there. Livestock production fell in all sectors beef, dairy, poultry and pig output were all lower in the past year than in previous years. Tough market conditions, stiff competition from imports and continued insecurity on commercial farms were the main drivers of this decline.
In the crop industry, cotton output declined as did sugar, wheat, barley and oilseeds. The coffee industry virtually ceased to exist and fruit and vegetable production declined sharply leading to significant imports for the first time in many years. The sight of local retail stores selling imported vegetables is a deeply disappointing trend and adds to our import dependence of basic foods that joins the continued absence of locally manufactured goods from industry.
The outlook for the coming season it no better. El Nino the weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, has receded and been replaced by La Nino a precursor to a wet season in many parts of the world as clearly indicated by monsoon flooding in Pakistan and India. This holds out the promise of a wet season in Zimbabwe and should signal increased farm output and activity.
Under pressure from the global recession and disappointment at the slow progress in resolving Zimbabwes political problems, donor agencies are juggling their budgets to accommodate urgent governance issues and the supply of inputs and food aid are under pressure. It is unlikely that the input programme will be as large as it was in 2009/10.
The banking sector, slowly recovering from the wipe-out in 2008, still does not have the capacity to provide the hundreds of millions of dollars required to fund the crop season in Zimbabwe. Normally the tobacco season starts as soon as the selling seasons starts in March/April with land preparation and seedbeds. Crop inputs should be on farm by now and many tobacco growers ready to plant out their early-irrigated crop the most important. Maize preparation may be a bit later, but planting is just a few weeks away and all land preparation and inputs should be in place. Instead we see nothing but burnt grass and weeds in the farming districts.
At the heart of this tragic scenario is one stark fact, all farmers are insecure, unsure of the future and unable to plan their activities or finance their operations. Until this situation is addressed there can be no progress in the farming industry in Zimbabwe and we will continue to suffer the consequences with slow national growth, low industrial capacity uitilisation and few jobs for the millions of the unemployed. Those with money will not suffer because they can afford to buy what they want and everything is available. Those without an adequate income, and they are the great majority, will simply go without.
Our towns and cities might still exhibit an aura of what was a thriving and diversified, developing economy, but in fact all that remains are the shells that once housed the engines that used to drive economic output in all sectors. The Harare Show is in the same league a handful of individuals trying to give the impression that all is well, when in fact the patient is still very sick and unable to even get out of bed.
Post published in: Opinions