MDC: The beginning of the end

Doubtless, apart from providing Zimbabweans with a breather, the primary function of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) was to give Zanu (PF) a new lease of life- and it has.

It has also given them time to rediscover, re-group and re-energise. Nor can the effect of the Chiadzwa diamonds be under-estimated. For the rest of the country, however, the GPA has flattered to deceive and been a grievous mistake. But the GPA alone will not destroy the MDC- there are other elements at play.

First, the question of sanctions has revealed a rather treacherous and malevolent side to the MDC not least because they have dismally failed to provide a satisfactory rebuttal to accusations that the sanctions were imposed at their instigation.

Milibands declaration

Indeed David Milibands declaration that the British government would be guided by the MDC on the subject of sanctions might well have given it all away.

When history is written, when the moment of truth-telling dawns upon us, this will be counted among the most inexcusable and most unforgivable of the MDCs actions. Indeed it will count in no small measure among the reasons for the downfall of the MDC.

Second, Tsvangirais position on the sanctions as a party to the GPA has been anything but clear. He has called them different things at different times. Nor has he been clear about their effect let alone removal.

For instance, a highly respected figure in Zimbabwean political circles wrote to me in confidence on the subject of sanctions and lamented: Maziwisa, Its unfortunate that Tsvangirai continues to vacillate on the sanctions issue. I have serious doubts about his capacity to run this country effectively given his flip flopping on important issues.

And it is not just among Zimbabweans that the MDC has lost important support through the question of sanctions. Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa, whose assessment of things many in the West have no choice but to consider as plausible, has constantly and unmistakably called for the removal of sanctions on Zimbabwe.

This has been a huge blow to the MDC who have had no option but to join the gallery and also call for their removal although, by the look of things, they would have preferred it if Zuma said otherwise.

And it never rains for the MDC. A few weeks ago President Robert Mugabes long-time critic and Tsvangirais known ally, Ian Khama of Botswana, added insult to injury by joining the already growing number of African leaders in calling for the lifting of sanctions on Zimbabwe.

A resounding negative

That the sanctions have yet to be lifted is neither here nor there. Suffice it to say that the European Union has since expressed a desire to reconsider its position on sanctions.

Nor can the damage occasioned by the GPA be overlooked. Quite the contrary, it has been devastating to the MDC as a party. Two weeks ago, President Robert Mugabe acted in what many, including this writer, perceived as a disturbing pattern of unacceptable unilateralism. No question about it, President Mugabe was wrong for reasons that are not the subject of this piece.

But while being so wrong, Tsvangirais rather stupid reaction was even more so — the culmination of which has since seen Zanu (PF)s approval ratings rise by a considerable margin while the MDCs plummet substantially. It was a moment of madness. It was a schoolboy mistake from an important politician.

Make no mistake the MDCs impulsive but characteristic decision to seek the intervention of western and foreign governments in a matter purely domestic and purely Zimbabwean met with widespread domestic and regional condemnation- a sure plus for Zanu (PF) and a resounding negative for the MDC.

Empirically put, 99, 9% of those I have spoken to regarding the matter believe Tsvangirais move gave credence to accusations that his party is foreign founded, foreign funded and foreign interested.

They believe it served to confirm allegations that theirs is an outpost of foreign interests. The fact of the matter is that Tsvangirais statements and actions make it horrendously difficult for anyone to imagine otherwise.

One sided battle

And the decision has backfired big time. For example, the United Nations has bluntly dishonoured Tsvangirais plea. It was always going to take a lot of persuading for Jacob Zuma to even read Tsvangirais letter.

And, apart from classifying it is as a matter of concern, the European Union has yet to heed Tsvangirais request. Moreover, Zanu (PF) has made it clear that it would reciprocate any gesture of goodwill from the EU.

Back home President Mugabe has since used Tsvangirais mistake to announce the imminent end of the GPA, pleading with his party for an acceleration of pace in preparation for elections at the same time.

Meanwhile, Arthur Mutambara has endorsed President Mugabes appointments. Oppah Muchinguri is doing everything in her power to maintain the momentum. Roy Bennett has fled the country and, in the clearest sign of desperation ever, Morgan Tsvangirai has hinted that he will not leave the GPA.

In politics, as in many things in life, one ought to play with ones cards close to ones chest. But, then, Tsvangirai has a known propensity to inadvertently disclose party secrets and strategies.

All things considered, the political battle in Zimbabwe has become disappointingly one-sided. It has exposed MDC weaknesses and confirmed Zanu (PF) strengths. All told, the MDC is in big political trouble and needs to fix its mistakes.

They have not done much in the GPA. Sadly they have secured higher praise in certain quarters than their record in government justifies. To survive, they need visionaries able to see beyond the comfort of the GPA.

**Psychology Maziwisa is a member of the Union for Sustainable Democracy.