Poll jitters to dim growth prospects

Zimbabwean economy is set to grow for the second successive year in 2010, thanks partly to strong commodity prices.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week again revised its 2010 growth forecast for Zimbabwe, raising it to 5.9 percent from the 5.1 percent forecast in June and 2.2 percent expansion projected in April.

At the same time, however, the Fund cut its 2011 forecast to 4.5 percent from the 5 percent projected in June.

However, EIU last week warned that prospects for 2011 to 2012 are less positive, because of economic constraints and political uncertainties.

Prospects for 2012 are likely to be even gloomier ifas we assumeelections are held in that year, the thinktank said.

President Robert Mugabe has said he would call for early elections before mid-2011 to put an end to what he called are stupid power-sharing disputes with long-time rival and coalition government partner Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai.

The EIU said the willingness of the government whether it remains as currently constituted or takes some other form to pursue policy reforms would lessen in the run-up to polls while political and business uncertainty would increase.

This suggests that growth will moderate to some 2.6 percent at bestgrowth could be much lower or even negative if the election process proves violent, said EIU.

The threat of violence-marred polls is a real possibility, judging by events during previous elections held in 2002, 2005 and 2008.

Mugabes Zanu (PF) has maintained its position through a combination of intimidation and electoral manipulation.

Despite having been in a government of national unity with the opposition since 2009, there is little to suggest that Zanu (PF) will adopt a substantially different approach in the next elections.