Mugabe is lucky

Second, and perhaps more important, that the two MDCs largely comprise narrow-minded, incompetent politicians whose political ineptitude is increasingly becoming a major obstacle to the democratic struggle.

The momentum was with Moyo the minute Welshman Ncubes MDC announced it was throwing in its lot with the MDC-T. It was such a charge to victory that attempts to whittle down Moyos support by arresting MDC-T legislators and allegedly bribing some could not stop the advancing Tsunami.

It was a powerful exhibition of the potency of the two MDCs when they work together. But, also, it was an eloquent indictment against the two parties for the way they motivated by petty jealousies and personality clashes – cruelly betrayed Zimbabweans by deciding against a united front that could have ended tyranny in 2008.

Messrs Morgan Tsvangirai, Welshman Ncube and their lieutenants should surely hang their heads in shame. Through an unforgivable lack of foresight, through failure to observe that wise dictum — divided we fall, united we stand — they became the biggest prop that saved Mugabe from certain political demise.

Zimbabwe should not be where it is today. We shouldnt have had to suffer this Zanu (PF)-dominated unity government. If the MDCs had put country before personal ambition and fought the March 2008 election under one umbrella, SADC would not have been discussing Zimbabwe last Thursday

For sure, Zanu (PF) was still going to try to rig the vote. The Joint Operations Command (JOC) was still going to withhold results and try to cook up the figures to keep their man in power. But Tsvangirais lead would have been totally unassailable!

Ultimately, Mugabe would have had to admit defeat and surrender power. Either that or he would have had to refuse to give up power like Ivory Coasts Laurent Gbagbo or, alternatively, let his JOC heavies stage a military coup.

Doing a Gbagbo or inviting soldiers to State House would have alienated Mugabes supporters in the SADC and Africa and left him more vulnerable than before hastening his and Zanu (PF)s downfall.

We have not the slightest doubt that the MDC formations can and might still end Zanu (PF)s rule. But it is highly unlikely they will ever get any better chance than three years ago.

Yet the MDCs greatest offense is not that they screwed up in 2008. It is that they seem incapable and even unwilling to appreciate and avoid the debilitating disadvantages of division.

The constitutional referendum is coming in a few months time, with elections to follow – provided Mugabe does not cause polls to happen earlier, before a new constitution is in place. That makes a united front against Mugabe and his military allies more than urgent, but you might as well go tell that to the mountains.

Instead of a grand opposition alliance, there is greater likelihood that we could be having four MDCs by the time polls are called. One led by Tsvangirai and others by Ncube, Arthur Mutambara and Job Sikhala. To that add Dumiso Dabengwas ZAPU, Simba Makonis Mavambo and a host of other even smaller parties all claiming the right to rule Zimbabwe. What a farce!

Mugabe should count himself very lucky to have such a hopelessly small-minded and politically blind bunch for opposition.