Where did it all go so wrong?

Because of mass unemployment, there is rising poverty and vice – prostitution, armed robbery and carjackings. Basic infrastructure is in a shocking state of disrepair. Although Zimbabweans embraced a new era of democracy with the MDC election victory two years ago, corruption and political tensions haunt the so-called unity government.

One could argue that in fact little has gone right since the Union Jack was lowered on the eve of April 17, 1980. Robert Mugabe – young, and confident – took over the reins of power in 1980 after a bitter 16-year bush war which claimed over 40,000 lives. He set up a political system that would last for more than three decades, now based on political nepotism, ethnic favouritism and the detention or elimination of political rivals.

Under the old man Zimbabwe started off very well, with significant gains in education and health care. But as Zimbabwe turned 31 on Monday, the most pertinent question is: Where did it all start to go wrong? The commonplace poverty and international isolation has never been this stark. Never has the country lacked a unifying vision for the nation and its rulers so reviled by those they govern.

For the first 10 years, Mugabe presided over a rapid reconstruction programme underlined by expansionist policies in education and health. But this ran concurrently with probably the worst repression in independent Zimbabwe’s history, which saw the annihilation of an ethnic minority loyal to his political opposition, Zapu. The era, known as Gukurahundi, saw the brutal suppression and impoverishment of the Ndebele group.

Charisma

Mugabe’s charisma and the leading role he played in pursuit of independence ensured that he managed to retain a heroic glow even as he subjugated Zapu which he eventually integrated into his Zanu PF. Then, a younger Mugabe outlawed all political parties and kept the police busy rounding up all suspected enemies of his regime. Most of them say they were tortured, jailed or detained without trial.

Commentators suggest that if he had retired in 1990, Nelson Mandela-style, he would have gone with his reputation intact. The architect of reconciliation, he presided over nation-building, the expansion of education and social services, and played an important role on the world stage.

The future seemed bright at the dawn of the second decade of Independence. The one-party-state project was about to be abandoned, the state of emergency lifted and the economy opened up to investment. But by 1990 evidence of the rot was already discernible. Zimbabwe began to lose its reputation as one of Africa’s most stable and prosperous countries after disastrous IMF prescriptions that restructured the economy with disastrous consequences. Anti-debt campaigner Hopewell Gumbo says the IMF’s Economic Structural Adjustment Programme (ESAP) devastated the economy.

IMF prescription

“The IMF prescription recommended a slash in government spending, scaled back on social programmes, stopped subsidies in education. The IMF stopped UZ students from getting bacon at campus. ESAP resulted in retrenchments because the IMF wanted a lean government,” said Gumbo. The result catalysed public anger against Mugabe, which was met with increased repression. Pressure from foreign donors forced him to hold multi-party elections starting in the 90s mainly against smaller parties.

But strongholds of the working class then decided in 1999 to mount its first serious challenge through the opposition MDC. Mugabe in 2000 launched his bid for political survival by authorising war veterans to seize commercial farms. It was a death blow to the economy which ended 20 years of self-sufficiency in food production and choked off forex earnings.

From that there has been no recovery.

The MDC claims the president rigged the first three multi-party elections in 2000, 2002 and 2005, although many Zimbabweans believed a split in the opposition itself denied them victory in the 2005 elections. Then, for a moment – in March 2008 – the country seemed to have shed the skin of repression, 28 years after independence. A new coalition government brought together leaders from opposition parties and Mugabe’s ruling Zanu PF – a political feat that had eluded the opposition in 10 years of multi-party politics in the 21st century.

Decisive vote

Zimbabweans – fed up with rising unemployment, economic meltdown, crime and graft – voted decisively for the first time for change in the 2008 polls, ending 28 years of misrule and grotesque corruption. But 26 months on, the opposition alliance seems to have been manipulated by Mugabe, a cunning political veteran, who has refused to share executive authority with his erstwhile partners in the GNU.

Despite dramatic moves to enact economic reforms that ended a decade of economic meltdown, internal feuding in the ruling coalition has undermined the credibility of the unity government and eroded confidence among Zimbabweans in the new era. From the beginning, Mugabe and his coalition partners Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara contained some ambiguities.

Ramshackle coalition

The ramshackle coalition running the country has dismally failed the nation especially in political reforms necessary for a fresh poll. The 2008 post-election euphoria has worn off. While the MDC says there has been abuse of the rule of law through arbitrary arrests of prominent MDC figures, mainly ministers, there is widespread concern that even the MDC has succumbed to the corrupting influence of power.

Elton Mangoma, the Energy minister and a top ally of Tsvangirai, has been accused of one of the biggest multi-million dollar corruption scandal, in which kickbacks were allegedly paid to a phoney company importing fuel. He has denied any wrongdoing, and says the charges are trumped-up.

The arrest of Moses Mzila-Ndlovu, the minister of National Healing, last Friday resulted in the boycott of Independence festivities by the MDC led by Prof Welshman Ncube. Meanwhile, Zanu PF ministers and army generals are already at the centre of scandals involving diamonds mined in the rich Marange diamond fields, while government struggles to pay a living wage to civil servants.

Long decline

Feuding – mostly over a new constitution that would dilute Mugabe’s presidential powers – is already slowing the coalition government’s efforts to reverse the country’s long decline. Two years ago, ubiquitous euphoria led to dancing in the streets when the coalition government took power.

But Mugabe’s refusal to share power and belligerent rhetoric has failed to persuade multilateral lenders such as the IMF to resume lending, cut off due to failure by Mugabe’s previous government to amortise its debt with the Bretton Woods institution. Western countries, concerned about the pervasive corruption under Mugabe, have withheld pledges of US$10 billion in aid until the GPA is fully implemented.

But many Zimbabweans are concerned over the ability of the new government – and that of a combative 87-year-old president who has not been in the best of health – to continue governing and cleaning up Zimbabwe’s politics. As a result, Zimbabwe has been held hostage to this intellectually brilliant but deeply flawed leader. He is the sole reason many did not celebrate Independence Day on Monday.

But thankfully, as events in Ivory Coast illustrated last week, no regime lasts forever. Sooner or later tyrants who abuse their people face an inevitable reckoning. Political analysts say those who have betrayed the promise of 1980 by encouraging, promoting, and excusing the brutal dictatorship that so blights our lives would do well to ponder the fate of other self-proclaimed leaders who are now discovering that no army can resist an idea whose time has come.