Squeezed as the MDC is by the weight of oppressive legislation that effectively bars it from mounting a proper election campaign and by widespread intimidation, a decision
not to participate in the polls seems like a foregone conclusion. After all, some believe participating in the election before fundamental political and electoral reforms have been completed will show that the party has not learnt any lessons from the 2008 elections.
With only six months before President Robert Mugabe’s proposed elections, there are no indications that the climate of political intimidation is about to evaporate. Mugabe's party has an armoury of laws it can use to prevent the MDC from holding rallies and campaigning, and the extensive use of the ruling party's militia is building fear among the voting population. Zanu (PF) has put systems in place to control the rural electorate, to the extent that if they voted MDC, the party could deny them food and medication.
The reasons for
Despite all of this, there are many reasons that the MDC should participate in the proposed elections.
The first is that by not participating, the party will not be represented in parliament to provide opposition to Zanu (PF) rule and to attempt to put a brake on the party's legislative excesses. Secondly, participating in the election keeps the MDC on the field of Zimbabwean politics. A boycott would mean that should it wish to launch another protest or a disobedience campaign, it would have an improved organisational base with which to do so.
And thirdly, the MDC does not have any other options. Despite the advantages of participation, it would be foolhardy for the MDC to enter the campaign without publicly made guarantees from regional leaders that they are prepared to isolate Mugabe if the election is not free and fair. Already the army generals have said they will not accept a victory for Tsvangirai. There is an implicit threat of a coup if Tsvangirai wins the election.
The MDC leadership and its members will enter an election campaign at considerable personal risk to themselves. They should not expect police protection from violent attack by Zanu (PF) aligned militias. They will also face the possibility of detention or imprisonment on arbitrary grounds. Already, there are criminal charges hanging over
the head of top MDC officials, including its leader Morgan Tsvangirai, whose docket for double dipping in a housing scam could send him to jail before the poll.
Given the deadlock on the election roadmap, the Southern African Development Community must hold Zimbabwe to account based on the principles and guidelines on elections agreed on at its summit in Grand Baiie, Mauritius in 2004.
SADC’s silence
The MDC and civil society groups say Zimbabwe is already in violation of several provisions of the so-called Grand Baiie protocol, but the silence from the SADC is deafening. At a recent Angola meeting of the "troika", the SADC's Organ on Politics, Defence, and Security, the forthcoming election was discussed and regional leaders stressed that they did not want to see a repeat of the 2008 scenario. SADC is dispatching a team to work with the GPA monitoring group, the JOMIC, to enact reforms of the electoral laws and make other necessary preparations for the poll.
If the SADC wishes to send a forceful message on the matter, it has little time to
do so. South Africa and most of the region are keen for the MDC to participate in the election, but it is asking a lot for the party to go into the election unprotected.
The MDC also needs guarantees about whether the observer missions will uphold the SADC's guidelines. In short, the MDC's participation has to depend on whether or not the SADC will offer protection.
Post published in: Opinions & Analysis