It is becoming clearer that the militant coterie within the party is realising that it’s only chance of survival, at least for three or so more years, is via a new GPA. This also seems the only way for them to safeguard the material gains they have made over the years. This group, everyone knows now, comprises influential securocrats and some politicians who are either close to the service lieutenants or have wormed their way into Zanu (PF) power politics.
Never mind the hardliners’ oft-repeated public statement that it wants the GNU to end because it is debilitatingly discordant. That is nothing but propaganda, stupid. Several factors lend credence to my conclusion that the hardliners want GNU 2. The first, and most basic one, is that they don’t have any other option to retain power and safeguard their eye-watering wealth.
It is folly to imagine that Zanu (PF) can win elections any time in the near future. People are still bitter with the party for presiding over the economic crisis that has caused so much suffering for so many.
Zanu (PF), as Dumiso Dabengwa said recently, has failed to transform itself into a modern day political entity, choosing instead to remain cocooned in the faded and outdated model of a liberation movement. It has failed to craft a sustainable succession plan, which has led to intense bitterness within the party. Most members are unhappy with the protracted stay of First Secretary, President Robert Mugabe.
The bitterness has in turn produced sharp divisions that would make it extremely difficult for Zanu (PF) to pull together as a team in the next elections. This internal disconnect showed, almost fatally, in the 2008 general elections where some candidates influenced their supporters not to vote for Mugabe.
Realizing that chances of winning an election are almost zero, hardliners in Zanu (PF) havedecided to frustrate the constitution-making process by cooking up a mysterious cocktail of new demands. Their strategy is to delay as much as possible the crafting of a new constitution that would form the bedrock for free and fair elections.
They would prefer a chaotic election whose results would be contested locally and internationally – as happened in 2008, resulting in the first GNU. Once again, there would be no choice but to succumb to the demand for another coalition government.
The Zanu (PF) hardliners know very well that the MDC is scared at the prospect of a coup d’état and would, as in 2008, submit themselves to GNU 2.
The hardliners, by the way, do not care a hoot how elections in Zimbabwe would be perceived. In fact, what they want are disputed election results so that they can achieve their goal.
Contested election results, again as in the case of 2008, would bring with them violence, arbitrary arrests, economic, social and political strife, as well as an uncertain future. Those pushing for this kind of scenario would then convince the world that the only way out is another GNU.
Needless to say, GNU 2 would give Mugabe a new lease of life and allow the hardliners to strategically position themselves and further enjoy the wealth they have amassed from our natural resources in recent years. They know Mugabe’s days are numbered and that he is increasingly losing the grip on power. The longer he stays in power, the more he is at their mercy.Post published in: Analysis