Should this happen, the MDC formations will have scored an own goal as they are not keen on elections under a half-baked reform environment. But if this does not happen and by-elections are held in the three or the 38 constituencies, then it will be “goo bora!” as Zimbabweans usually shout when a player scores a goal. Zanu (PF) will be the big looser in this case.
The Supreme Court rightly noted that it is trite for Mugabe to claim there is no money for by-elections when he is calling for harmonised elections throughout the county. The highest court in the land correctly observed that the issue of lack of financial resources would not have arisen had by-elections been held whenever vacancies occurred in Parliament. The former liberation party is now faced with the scary prospect of losing more than half of the 38 contestable seats. If by-elections are held in only the three constituencies mentioned in the court case – all in Matabeleland – then Mugabe’s reeling party will have no chance whatsoever of winning any of them.
Both MDC formations have so far indicated that they would welcome the holding of by-elections in all 38 vacant constituencies. It is pretty much obvious that the MDC (Ncube) formation will struggle to win in any of the three constituencies previously occupied by legislators who were expelled from that party.
Unconfirmed but highly credible sources indicate that the three former legislators have since defected to the Tsvangirai-led MDC. With regard to the 38 seats, it is highly likely that the major winner will be MDC-T, but Zanu (PF) will also win in those constituencies that have been its stronghold all along. These are the constituencies that lie in the Mashonaland provinces, or in areas where the MDC formations have often found it difficult to campaign for various reasons.
The claim by Zanu (PF), that it has since regained its previous popularity among the voters must be dismissed with the contempt that it deserves. It is well known throughout the country that the Mugabe party has lost so much popular support that it is likely to resort to political violence, vote buying and intimidation in order to win any significant number of seats in the proposed by-elections.
The contest will, however, act as a critical test case and a barometer to indicate to all of us the level of popular support that the major political parties still have. Smaller political parties such as Mavambo Kusile Dawn, MDC99, Zapu and MDC (Mutambara) are highly unlikely to win a single seat among the 38 seats to be contested. There is also a strong likelihood that the MDC (N) formation will be unable to gain any meaningful number of seats to bring its strength in Parliament back to its previous level of 10seats.
This is important because it may well have serious implications for the balance of power in the august House. The currently hung Parliament may well be a thing of the past after the holding of the by elections. Whether this will be good or bad for democracy, peace and security is a subject for another instalment one day soon.
Post published in: Analysis