From my analysis, there are no fundamental flaws in the recently launched JUICE economic blueprint by the MDC. The document deals with all the matters that must be addressed if Zimbabwe is to recover. It is indeed a commendable effort to bring some sanity into Zimbabwe’s economic front.
Here, I would like to add what I think will be the critical success factors.
Zimbabwe has had in excess of 10 economic blue prints since 1981 when the “Growth with Equity Policy” was launched. Most of these policies looked good on paper but were either half heartedly implemented or not implemented at all mainly due to our incapacity to implement projects. We will therefore need to have the correct institutional capacity to implement JUICE. This capacity cannot be taken for granted because Zimbabwe’s state sector and private sectors have been infected with what I call “the ZANU (PF) virus” that has first to be cured before we can develop a healthy economy. We must have a government and state sector made up of individuals that look beyond their selfish needs. We must have state institutions led by professionals and not the political cronies. Whether this can happen overnight is questionable given the extent of the rot that must firs be addressed.
A significant number of transactions and projects need to be reversed and the siege on Zimbabwe’s mining industry and other national resources by the army must be dealt with. This would require that the country goes through some process of cleansing before we can embark on any new economic policies. This I guess, will be the hardest thing to achieve, because it means that all the economic crimes being committed now must be exposed and those responsible incarcerated. This will mean that those grabbing assets under empowerment will have to be dealt with. There is therefore, a very high likelihood of the sabotage by existing power cabals of any meaningful effort to change the economic front.
We also have to change the way Zimbabweans do business both in the private and public sectors. Our values system and business ethics must change so that we can create an environment based on free enterprise and systems that reward effort and hard work. Zimbabwe is in an unfortunate position where, because ZANU (PF) has denied the reality of a new world system based on individual freedoms and technology, our country has been shielded from international developments and has become backward in all forms especially the use of technology to fast track economic development.
The challenge for the MDC will be how to create a modern economy with the same economic players. Personally I have written off a large portion of our business population as drivers of change. This will mean that Zimbabweans in the Diaspora will have to play a very significant role to ensure that the country “leap frogs” ahead in its thinking and ability to manage large development projects. The problem here is that the human capacity that Zimbabwe has outside its borders continues to be disregarded by our local planners. I expect that this will be addressed in due course if the MDC is serious about change.
Social regeneration and development will be at the centre stage of economic renewal. This will require that our economy quickly generates large revenues to address socio economic needs that have been neglected for the last thirty two years. Where these revenues are going to come from is not that clear or are we going to rely once more on NGOs’ and aid. Clearly Zimbabwe is making huge unaccounted for revenues from diamonds and other minerals. The MDC will have to bite the bullet and ensure that these revenues begin to go where they belong. That is the fight that the MDC must plan and get ready for. It will be a long and dirty fight.
Yes Zimbabwe I poised for a great economic future but only if we create an inclusive economic agenda where all Zimbabweans participate and politicians begin to play a less central role in commerce.
Vince Musewe is an independent economist in Harare and you can contact him on vtmusewe@gmail.com
Post published in: Opinions & Analysis
There have been commentaries on the implementation ability of the MDC JUICE targets; mostly the employment figure of 1 million has drawn critics for being too low a target. Let’s look at the historical figures in support of MDC’s JUICE targets;
Zimbabwe’s population stands at 12,612,600(2012 census). The population for 30 -64 age group represent a 23% of the population, in figurative form 2, 7 million people. If MDC is to create 1 million jobs in 5 years, this would represent a 38% rise in employment to 30-64 age group, if we are to wind back to 20-64 age group the increase would fall to about 22% +-or 4% annual employment growth. Now would that translate to a meaningful employment creation?
To answer that lets look at historical empirical data;
Employment growth in 1990 was 1.9% and this dropped to -7.5% by 2006. Given that we are coming from negative growth, the effective growth rate for MDC’s JUICE would be effectively 14.5% above negative equity, which is the highest employment growth ever recorded since 1990.
Is the economic recovery a reality, now lets look at just one sector as an example; the tourism sector in 2005 recorded receipts of $100 million and after the GNU, economic stabilisation and relative peace the receipts have risen to $800 million, which represent a 800% growth rate thereby increasing the revenue inflows, imagine if it was an MDC government with both regional and international good will? MDC not only has its figures and facts right, it has the will and the technocratic capability to deliver the change that Zimbabwe badly needs.
Elliot Pfebve,Author and political commentator