Further, the Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) became more active and more visible. It has also decentralized somewhat. Against all odds, COPAC completed the draft constitution and proceeded to successfully hold the Second All Stakeholders’ Conference; there was no violence. SADC became more assertive. At least two of the three seconded officers have now joined JOMIC, and the regional body is insisting that outstanding reforms be implemented prior to the holding of elections.
There is a modicum of political and economic stability in the country as there has been a reduction in polarization along party political lines. Key political leaders are now talking against political violence during election campaigns. The Prime Minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, finally got married to a beautiful young lady of his choice. As recently as last week, Morgan Komichi, the national deputy chairman of the MDC, was sworn in as Deputy Minister of Transport after a long wait. These positive developments clearly point this nation to the possibility of forging a peaceful and prosperous country.
Unfortunately, we experienced just as many negative developments in 2012. The media reforms relating to television have not yet been implemented. No new and independent television stations have been licensed to date. Further, there is continued use of hate language against PM and other non Zanu (PF) leaders by state-owned media. Most of the created commissions are in limbo due to lack of resources. Numerous legal reforms are still to be effected, such as the amendments to both POSA and AIPPA. JOMIC’s efforts at monitoring the implementation of the GPA are not bearing much fruit for the nation. The National Healing, Reconciliation and Integration Organ has turned out to be very ineffective. Reform of national institutions has not yet been done. The reform of the youth training programme has not been undertaken. The creation of the National Economic Council has not been done. The COPAC draft is still to be taken to Parliament and to the people. There is still considerable political tension and the situation can only be described as volatile. Senior securocrates maintain their arrogant stance against political parties that are not Zanu (PF).
Given all these positive and negative developments of the year 2012, what does the year 2013 hold for this nation? There is likely to be a repeat of the 2008 situation resulting in a GPA2 and a GNU2. It seems obvious that Mugabe’s party will lose the next election and so there might be a resort to violence by Zanu (PF) militia, soldiers, war vets in order to rescue that party. This violence will result in the rejection of disputed election results by SADC, AU, UN and the international community.
Zanu (PF) is unlikely to endorse the Copac Draft and may demand elections under the Lancaster House Constitution) This could possibly cause the break-up of the GNU as Zanu (PF) will want to resume governing alone. This will obviously result in intensified economic sanctions and travel restrictions against Zimbabwe. There is also likely to be increased apathy among the people as they may give up on voting as a means to effect the choice of political leadership.. – makumbe60@gmail.com
Post published in: Opinions & Analysis