Harare is awash with allegations that the ballot boxes were somehow stuffed with ballots as there were very few reports of long queues anywhere on polling day.
The full report follows: This report is an attempt to interrogate and analyse the voter behavior that influenced the relatively 'high voter turnout' in this poll. What could have driven Zimbabweans to come out and vote in such unprecedented large numbers, what is the comparative analysis? Could the numbers have been tampered with? And what does this mean for the coming crucial elections in Zimbabwe?
The Increased Voter Turnout
The March 2013 referendum witnessed an increased voter turnout by all standards in Zimbabwe since 1980, and all the subsequent elections that have taken place since then. The table below depicts the voter turnout in all of Zimbabwe’s elections since 1980.
VOTER TURNOUT IN ZIMBABWE: From 1980 to 2008
Further, it is also evident that, compared to the February 2000 referendum, the March 2013 recorded a significantly higher voter turnout. The February 2000 referendum had a total voter turnout of 1 312 738 whilst the March 2013 recorded a voter turnout of 3 316 082. The table below depicts the 2000 Referendum results
2000 REFERENDUM RESULTS
A comparative analysis of the March 2008 Elections and the 2013 Referendum is also made, which shows that there has been a significant increase of people who voted in the referendum than those who participated in March 2008. The table below shows the numbers of the people who voted in March 2008 and those who cast their vote in March 2013.
It also depicts the numerical increase that each of the 10 provinces registered for the referendum as well as the percentage increase. Harare recorded the highest percentage increase followed by Mashonaland West, Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East, Masvingo, Midlands, Bulawayo, Matabeleland North and the province with the least percentage increase was Matabeleland South.
The graph below illustrates the pattern of voting in the ended referendum, which shows Harare had the largest voter turnout followed by the three Mashonaland Provinces. The Southern regions, comprising Bulawayo, Matebeleland North and Matebeleland South had the lowest voter turnout.
The graph below illustrates that there was an increased voter turnout for the March 2013 Referendum when compared to the March 2008 Election.
The chart below depicts the voter numerical increases of the provinces in terms of voter turnout when compared to the March 2008 elections.
3.0 Unpacking the Miracle Votes:
The Implications ers than questions, with various suggestions being made to explain the rise in the voter turnout. The reasons The requirements for casting a vote in a referendum were not as stringent as those in an election. Voters were only required to use their mplete voting. -T. ms that were widely used especially by the s spearheaded by both civil society and GPA. and they believe that since The recent flurry of votes in the just ended referendum has left more answhave varied from vote rigging to an increased interest in the electoral process. In this section, the Election Resource Centre (ERC) unpacks some of the reasons which could have led to the comparatively high voter turnout.
• Relaxed voting requirements: national IDs in the absence of a voter’s roll which enabled a number of unregistered, but ineligible voters to cast their votes. This included almost 3 generations of voter grandaunts who turned 18 years between 2008 and 2013.
• The Voting procedure was less complex as compared to an actual election, exemplified by the average 3 minutes that voters took to co
• The relatively prevailing peaceful political engagements could have revitalized confidence in the electoral processes.
• Political party canvassing manifested in the tussle for numbers between the two main political parties ZANU PF and MDC
• The utilization of social media as a platform for public debate increased the interest in the Referendum. The social media platforyoung people included facebook and twitter.
• A new generation of first time voters that voted.
• Effectiveness of voter awareness programmethe main political formations who are party to the
• The swirling desire to end the transitional period, it might be that most Zimbabweans have grown weary of the tripartite governance framework and they believe that since the constitutional reform exercise was one of the major obstacles, ensuring its passage would expedite the conduct of elections, hence the end of the coalition government.
3.1 The Fears…
There are fears from other sections of the society such as the National Constitutional campaigned for a no vote that the referendum result could U PF, to drive out ). There was consensus amongst ll walks of life that this constitution is a good document for women in electoral processes. Assembly (NCA) and those whohave been rigged and that the high voter turnout was manipulated through ballot staffing. This thinking is motivated by the belief that ZANU PF was using the referendum as a test case for the forthcoming General elections slated for this year, and that the results reflect on ZANU PFs test run of its rigging machinery and its coercive machinery of systematically driving out its supporters especially in the rural areas to vote en’masse.
Whilst we cannot be able to authenticate claims of rigging, this high voter turnout could be attributed to the coercive capacities of the political parties, especially ZANtheir supporters in a systematic manner to vote in a block. There were reports of voters being given cards before voting in the rural areas as well as registering their names with party officials before voting. Such coercive and intimidatory practices could be replicated in the next elections.
3.2 Where the “Yes” could have come from?
• Core supporters of the three parties in the GPA.
• Forced voters.
• Women (who constitute the majority of voters)
There was consensus amongst women from all walks of life that this constitution is a good document for women hence the massive mobilization by women’s groups and women politicians to endorse the draft.
• The youth vote, although more still needs to be done to ensure that young people participate in electoral processes.
3.3 Where the “No” could have come from?
• Core members of the National Constitutional Assembly anPTUZ and MDC-99).
• Some MDC members whose voting was not polluted by group action and party opinion leaders. They retained their freedom of choice.
• There was a clique in ZANU PF which found expression through Jonathan Moyo, which at some point vehemently opposed the completioexercise. There is no telling that this clique could have made a sudden about turn to endorse this draft given how vigorously they campaigned for the disbandment of COPAC and the holding of elections under the Lancaster House Constitution.
• Some ZANU PF members who at some point were told about the ‘toxic’ issues in the proposed constitution. For instance, those who once were told that the COPAC draft would allow gay LGBTI rights (gay and lesbian rights) – at some point ZANU PF embarked on a campaign against the draft which spread to most areas like Gokwe Chireya. However, following their ultimate agreement ZANU PF could have failed to effectively reach some of its members who already had embarked on a campaign against the draft to re-orient them on the party’s new position.
Conclusion
The results of the just ended referendum show a trend of increased voter turnout in the poll.
Political Parties in the country will analyse and interpret the results in an attempt to prepare for the forthcoming elections. It is most likely that the voter turnout in the referendum could be a mirror of the next elections. On the whole there was a marked increased voter turnout in Harare and the three Mashonaland Provinces. The referendum was also characterized by a low voter turnout in Bulawayo, Matebeleland South and North provinces. Against this background it is clear that stakeholders charged with electoral management and voter mobilization that a deliberate strategy be employed to target these provinces which had a low voter turnout. The need to increase voter mobilization around the country, especially targeting the youth and first time voters, remains urgent.
Post published in: Analysis