“President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu (PF) are still pushing for an early poll, with little time to implement outstanding reforms and new constitutional provisions. The pervasive fear of violence and intimidation on the ground contradict verbal commitments to peace. A reasonably free vote is still possible, but so too are deferred or disputed polls, or even military intervention. The international community seems ready to back SADC, which must work with the GPA to define and enforce “red lines” for a credible vote,” says the statement.
SADC places particular emphasis on democracy supporting institutions, but the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission faces significant challenges. Limited government funding threatens its capacity building, public outreach and ability to ensure the integrity of the voters’ roll. The Group says elections in a context of acute divisions are unlikely to provide stability. “There is growing sense that the best way forward is further power sharing, though this is only helpful if objectives are established and widely accepted. To note that Zimbabwe is less violent now than in 2008 means little before the campaign – it is the competition for power that generates violence. That the elections are likely to be tense and see some violence and intimidation is clear; what is not yet clear is the nature of the violence, its extent and the response it will generate.”
SADC should:
Facilitate further discussion among GPA parties to address the lack of consensus and clarity on reforms following the constitutional referendum.
Convene a dedicated heads of state summit on Zimbabwe that emphasises roadmap compliance with the SADC “Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections”.
Establishes a liaison office in Harare to monitor and evaluate electoral preparations and facilitate prompt response when necessary;
Define “red lines”, strict benchmarks and clear measures for non-compliance,
Establish clear monitoring and observation roles in the election.
Utilise its security structures and processes to facilitate high-level engagement between senior military, police and intelligence officials from the region to persuade the Zimbabwe security sector not to interfere in the political process.
Require an electoral code of conduct for police, military and intelligence services that can be endorsed by SADC heads of state.
GPA should:
1. Expedite and ensure implementation of all GPA commitments,
2. Allow the UN needs assessment mission to conduct an assessment to help address the lack of confidence in electoral processes and systems,
3. Resource fully and operationalise the ZHRC,
4. Appoint staff to ZEC to address concerns about alleged political bias,
5. Ensure SADC officials deployed to JOMIC during the referendum remain in place until after the elections,
6. Resolve disagreements preventing the deployment of additional JOMIC monitors.
7. Extend JOMIC’s mandate to cover the election period and make party leadership accountable to the GPA and the election roadmap.
8. Hold regular National Security Council meetings as the elections draw near.
9. Ensure security officials making partisan public statements are censured.
JOMIC should:
Operationalise additional teams recruited in 2012.
Increase outreach, cooperation and collaboration with civil society and faith-based organisations. – International Crisis Group
Post published in: Africa News