Tsvangirai will win: Zamchiya

Addressing participants at the launch of the fourth edition of the Crisis Coalition Zimbabwe Transition Barometer here on Friday, Zamchiya said he respected the surveys’ predictions but the media were not picking on over indulgence on Mugabe leading in the coming election.

He said results of the surveys suggested that there will not be a clear winner between Tsvangirai and Mugabe, since the latter might lead in the polls by a paltry three or less percent.

“If Mugabe leads in the first running it will be difficult for him to build alliances with other political parties for the run-off. This is where Tsvangirai has an edge over Mugabe since the MDC will easily join forces with other pro-democracy parties to outwit the Zanu (PF) presidential candidate,” said Zamchiya.

The dilemma for a Mugabe win is that Tsvangirai and his supporters will dispute the election outcome since they are already expressing concerns over the electoral process.

MDCs are contesting against the way ZEC and the RG’s offices are handling the voter registration process and reluctance by Zanu (PF) to respect agreed GPA reforms.

Zamchiya said from the way Zanu (PF) rivals are questioning the electoral process, chances are high that Mugabe and Zanu (PF) could be headed for an illegitimate ‘win’.

Two surveys of popular voting intentions released by Freedom House and Afrobarometer in July 2012 said Mugabe’s Zanu (PF) would win polls ahead of Tsvangirai’s MDC.

The Afrobarometer survey indicated that an election in Zimbabwe then would go into the second round poll and result in another GNU since there would not be a clear winner.

“Instant presidential elections between Mugabe and Tsvangirai would again be decided by a run-off poll after the two political rivals emerged neck to neck during the survey.”

According to the survey, 32 percent of the 2 400 Zimbabweans sampled indicated they would vote for President Mugabe and Zanu (PF) if elections were held then while 31 percent preferred Tsvangirai and MDC-T.

Welshman Ncube of MDC received a one percent vote of the survey. Twenty two percent of those spoken to refused to disclose their political preferences but in terms of party support both Zanu (PF) and MDC-T were tied on 31 percent.

The survey revealed MDC-T popularity sinking from the 57 percent enjoyed in 2008 to 31 while Zanu (PF) support rose from 10 percent to 31.

The Afrobarometer report said more than 78 percent of people who indicated were MDC-T were afraid of political victimisation while 47 percent of Zanu (PF) followers bore some semblance of fear.

Despite Zanu (PF) enjoying a narrow margin of popularity it was indicated that those afraid to disclose their political preferences would vote for Tsvangirai and MDC-T on a scale of 49 percent to Mugabe and Zanu (PF)’s 45.

Political analyst Pedzisai Ruhanya is on record suggesting that MDC popularity could have waned due to its failure to make a difference in the GNU.

“MDC has not changed anything significant in the GNU since bad leadership and corruption across parties in the GNU continues unabated,” said Ruhanya.

MDC-T spokesperson Douglas Mwonzora said his party and Tsvangirai will romp to victory since the electorate realised the party’s ability to deliver and turn Zimbabwe’s political, social and economic fortunes.

In the 29 March 2008 harmonised elections Tsvangirai and MDC beat Mugabe and Zanu (PF) for the first time in the political history of Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai failed to come up with a clear win which led to the formation of the GNU.