Immediately after Renamo’s defeat in the elections, Dhlakama claimed that he was the victim of enormous fraud – even though Renamo had boasted that its amendments to the electoral law rendered it proof against fraud, and even though Renamo had literally tens of thousands of people at all levels of the electoral apparatus, from the polling stations upward.
Dhlakama’s immediate ploy was to call for a “caretaker government” to run the country for the next five years, with ministers appointed by Renamo and by the ruling Frelimo Party. When Frelimo rejected this proposal, he switched to calls for “autonomy” in the northern and central parts of the country.
In its maximum version, this would be a separatist “Republic of Central and Northern Mozambique” of which he would be president. Speaking in the north in early February, he promised to declare such a Republic “within days”.
But his two meetings in Maputo with President Filipe Nyusi have led Dhlakama to drop the separatism, and adopt a more modest terminology, speaking instead about “autonomous regions” or “autonomous provinces”.
In an interview in the latest issue of the independent weekly “Savana”, Dhlakama says that these “autonomous provinces” would be modelled on the existing municipalities. Just as Maputo City has both provincial and municipal status, he did not see why similar arrangements could not be made for other provinces, and without any need to change the Constitution.
The Constitution establishes two levels of local councils – town and city municipalities, and “settlement municipalities” based on administrative posts (the level of state administration between districts and localities). However the constitution also says that other types of local council could be established, at higher or lower levels.
“So judicially our proposal does not violate the Constitution”, Dhlakama said. “We don’t need any public consultation. We just go to the law. It is envisaged that a local council higher than those that exist can be created”.
This argument about provincial-level municipalities is drawn almost verbatim from that made by a prominent professor in constitutional law, Gilles Cistac, although Dhlakama did not mention the fact.
Dhlakama did not want anything “complicated” – such as asking the public if they want a radical shake-up in the way the state is organised. “I want something that will enter now and be implemented”, he said.
His agreement with Nyusi a week ago was that Renamo will submit a bill on “autonomous provinces” to the country’s parliament, the Assembly of the Republic. He wanted this steamrollered through, without opposition from Frelimo. It should be “discussed and approved in March”, and new forms of provincial government would then be set up “immediately”.
This would be based on the provincial assemblies that were elected last October. In some unspecified manner the “President of the Provincial Council” would emerge from the assembly.
“All the executive powers of the existing governors will be transferred to the President of the Provincial Council, who will be from Renamo, and who will work with the Provincial Assembly, as if it were a small parliament”, Dhlakama said.
However, the powers of the Assemblies, established under the Constitution, are very limited. They are “to control compliance with the principles and norms established in the constitution and the laws as well as with decisions of the Council of Ministers concerning the province”, and “to approve the programme of the provincial government and supervise compliance with it”.
At no point does the Constitution suggest that some new form of provincial government could emerge from the Assemblies.
As for drawing the “President of the Provincial Council” from Renamo, in reality, although Dhlakama claims six provinces, Renamo only has an outright majority in three provincial assemblies – in Sofala, Zambezia and Tete.
In Nampula Renamo and Frelimo are tied, with 46 seats each – the sole member elected from the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) could swing decisions either way.
In Manica, Frelimo has the narrowest of majorities – 40 seats to 39 for Renamo. Again there is one MDM member in the Assembly. As for Niassa, the sixth province claimed by Dhlakama, Frelimo has a clear majority with 42 seats to 34 for Renamo and four for the MDM.
Dhlakama claimed that, unless the “autonomous provinces” are established, there would be anti-government demonstrations in the northern and central provinces. This is not the first time Dhlakama has made such threats. After losing the 2009 elections, he promised to hold “nationwide demonstrations” – but in reality not a single Renamo demonstration took place.
As for the current provincial governors, they would not be expelled from the provinces (thus contradicting threats Dhlakama had made a few weeks ago). Instead they would remain as “representatives of the state, without executive powers”. This too is borrowed from the current municipalities, each of which has a largely toothless “state representative”.
Asked whether the Frelimo leadership would not simply order the Frelimo parliamentary group to vote against the Renamo bill, Dhlakama said “I have already warned them”. Indeed, he had publicly threatened to overthrow the government, unless Frelimo meekly signed up to the Renamo proposals.
“If Frelimo plays about and rejects the bill on autonomous regions, the government will immediately fall”, he menaced, immediately after his second meeting with Nyusi.
While it is impossible to discuss the Renamo bill in any detail, since it has not yet been written, there are some obvious problems. First, not all constitutional lawyers agree with Cistac that an “autonomous province” is just a municipality writ large, or that the exceptional status of Maputo City can be transferred to the other provinces.
Altering the powers of provincial assemblies, and introducing a new layer of governance, are fundamental matters that are likely to require, not merely a constitutional amendment, but also a national referendum. Dhlakama wants at all costs to avoid a referendum since it would be held, not just in the areas where Renamo has strong support, but in the entire country, and the result would not be regarded as valid unless more than half the registered electorate voted.
Other thorny issues include the relationship between the “autonomous provinces” and the existing district administrations and municipal councils, and the question of taxation. How will “autonomous provinces” be funded? Will vast numbers of functionaries be needed to staff the new forms of provincial government, and how will they be paid for?
There is no sign that Renamo has even begun to think of these issues – since the question of autonomy has arisen, not as a matter of principle, but merely as a response to losing an election.
Post published in: Africa News