The planted area likely remains below normal despite good rainfall in December
Key Messages
As the 2023/24 lean season peak nears, the number of households engaging in coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is increasing mainly in typical deficit- producing areas. Most poor households’ own-produced food stocks have depleted, and access to income for market purchases is constrained. However, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist in the productive surplus- producing resettlement areas in the north through the 2024 harvest due to the availability of own-produced 2023 stocks and income from some crop sales and casual labor. The communal parts of the surplus-producing areas will likely continue to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to limited household stocks and access to income for market purchases.
Record dryness and high temperatures in November and early December resulted in many farmers delaying planting their fields this season. However, widespread rainfall from mid to late December resulted in increased planting, but the area planted to crops is likely still below normal across most areas as the planting window progressively narrows. The rainfall recorded from mid to the end of December has improved the critical water and pasture conditions that had led to some livestock deaths in the worst affected areas in the south.
The cost of living in ZWL terms is expected to continue to increase throughout the outlook period, mainly driven by rising official and parallel market exchange rates. USD price increases for some goods and services are also likely, driven partly by anticipated production and transport cost increases. Due to relatively lower prices than formal retail shops, the informal retail sector will likely remain the preferred source of basic food and other commodities, especially among poor households. Panic buying of staple grain will trigger significantly above-normal price spikes through the next harvests.
The anticipated El Niño-induced below-normal rainfall from January through March is expected to negatively impact seasonal agricultural labor opportunities, particularly in semi- arid areas. Current improvements in pasture and water conditions are expected to be short-lived if prolonged dry spells are recorded in January and February and result in poor livestock (mainly cattle) body conditions. Poor households, especially in southern and western areas, are likely to increase their reliance on remittances from family members in South Africa, but the high cost of living will likely impact the amount received. Some households will increasingly seek to earn income from petty trade and informal mining to earn income for food purchases and rely on humanitarian assistance, reportedly to begin being distributed in January 2024 in targeted areas.
Post published in: Agriculture