2011 – The year the dictator goes

I think the word Goes provides a safety valve, just in case the dictator fails to die but gets kicked out of office as most of us expect this year. That also depends on whether or not the nation will hold elections this year.

There is a strong possibility that there might not be any elections in 2011, even though Mugabe is clamouring for them. There are too many factors militating against the holding of any elections, whether harmonized or presidential, before there is adequate evidence of a significant change for the better in the political environment. The days when Robert Mugabe would say something and it would surely come to pass are long gone.

Under the patchwork dispensation, also known as the GNU, the 86-year-old man no longer always has things his way. He now has to negotiate most serious decisions, including those that his political party has endorsed as gospel. But the year 2011 is likely to be just as full of events and surprises as was 2010. At the time of writing this, Ago Mutambara has just lost the presidency of the smaller formation of the MDC. Welshman Ncube, the outgoing secretary general of that party, has unashamedly ascended to the presidency – leaving good old Ago out in the cold.

It remains to be seen whether the two gentlemen will also swop ministerial portfolios, something Mugabe is likely to resist since he has grown fond of Mutambara, given the latters penchant for praising the old man. In politics, there are no permanent friends or foes, only permanent interests. Mutambara would be best advised to defect right away to the Tsvangirai formation as an ordinary member. I doubt that he will have that level of humility. I am also not sure whether Tsvangirai would welcome Ago into the fold.

Should Robert Mugabe have his way and elections are held this year, it is obvious that he will be soundly beaten again by the indomitable MT – regardless of how badly the people of this country may be intimidated, beaten up and tortured by the securocrats. The voters are determined to get rid of Mugabe and Zanu (PF) and will not relent in their efforts. The ballot will still be rigged big time, but even rigged elections can be won. The MDC-T is very much aware of that.

Zanu (PF) is now a pale shadow of its former self. Its grassroots structures have completely vanished from the scene. Their current national political commissar is doing precious nothing to redress the situation. He is obviously conscious of the demise of his predecessors who paid the ultimate price while engaging in that highly risky exercise of restructuring the liberation movement. Any attempt at restructuring the decayed party is likely to be met with stiff opposition by those who now occupy what they think are positions of power.

In an attempt to woo some of the younger generation of voters, Mugabe is going to make several other jingles like the ridiculous Zvirisei sei, which make even toddlers laugh at the old man and call him senile. A recent study has actually demonstrated that the stupid jingles are counter-productive in that they are making more people hostile to Mugabe and Zanu (PF) than ever before.

This year, 2011, is therefore likely to be the year that the dictator will, in one way or the other, have no choice but to go.