Is Zanu (PF) too big for SADC?

Faced with this stiff resistance the two MDCs are looking to the Southern African Development Community in the hope that it will be able to whip President Robert Mugabe and his party into line.

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai recently embarked on a diplomatic offensive in which he sought to encourage regional leaders to exert pressure for reforms before the polls. Mixed feelings have been expressed on whether South African President Jacob Zuma and SADC are willing to able to do so.

SADC itself is on record saying that reforms agreed to under the GPA should be implemented before elections are held. Political analyst Alexander Rusero says Mugabe has a history of resisting and then giving in at the last minute.

“SADC is the guarantor of the GPA and Mugabe will not want to be seen as going against it or the AU. What is happening now is all about buying time and dilly dallying – but I think Mugabe himself is fed up with all this. Remember – Zuma is just a facilitator and the whole idea is for the internal forces, the MDCs, to pressurize Mugabe into complying,” said Rusero.

Another analyst, Rejoice Ngwenya, said it would be suicidal for the two MDC formations to wholly rely on Zuma and SADC. “Mugabe can choose to ignore Zuma because there is nothing in law that can compel Zuma to do anything. Mugabe can ignore Zuma because he knows that SADC is a toothless bulldog.

“But Tsvangirai, Ncube and Dabengwa can say that they will not go for elections if these reforms are not implemented. The question is not whether Zuma will succeed or not, but why it has taken so long for the MDCs to continue with the business of Parliament without these reforms in place,” said Ngwenya.

Media analyst Pedzisayi Ruhanya said Zuma and SADC would have an uphill task tackling Mugabe without the support of democratic institutions inside Zimbabwe. “It is not only a matter for President Zuma to address but also for the MDC-T and other democratic players to push. If there is a lot of pressure within Zimbabwe, this will give Zuma more power and legitimacy to make sure Mugabe agrees to all the other reforms – not only media reforms.

“The most important thing is that internal democratic actors should push hard so that when Zuma speaks, he speaks with power and authority. If Zimbabweans are silent, that will make it difficult for Zuma to push Mugabe,” said Ruhanya.

Most analysts say the fact that the Zimbabwean crisis has been, and continues to be, discussed at SADC and other regional and international forums should not be interpreted to mean there could be a speedy resolution to the crisis. In his Independence Day address last month, Mugabe said he was embarrassed to hear other countries discussing political violence and unrest in Zimbabwe. MDC-N Secretary General Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga recently told a public discussion on elections in the capital that the Zimbabwean issue had become a source of embarrassment.

“I cringe with embarrassment because SADC leaders confront us directly asking us why we cannot put our house in order,” she said. But she also expressed confidence that SADC would eventually succeed in its efforts to ensure reforms before elections. “Zanu (PF) today will not be allowed to get away with any unilateral actions like they have done in the past,” she said.