GNU progress null and void without security sector reforms: Kasambala

In a recent interview with The Zimbabwean here, Human Rights Watch's Africa Advocacy Director, Tiseke Kasambala, said SADC leaders should, notwithstanding other reforms, direct more focus on drawing a code of conduct stipulating that the security forces remain neutral and impartial and that they will not interfere with the election process.

Failure to do that could result in widespread post-election violence similar to that experienced in 2008, an international watchdog official warned recently.

Kasambala condemned inflammatory public statements that have been issued by some security services chiefs in favour of President Mugabe and against Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, which she said would translate to widespread violence especially if Mugabe were to lose the polls, expected sometime this year.

"The explicit nature of statements from senior members of the police and army are very worrying," said Kasambala.

"We have heard them issue very inflammatory words against Morgan Tsvangirai, like calling him a psychiatric patient, sell-out and puppet of the West and we fear that such statements could translate to widespread violence.

"Zimbabwe cannot hold free and fair elections under the current scenario, where there is a high level of fear. Our research shows that soldiers have already been deployed in many areas to harass, beat and intimidate those suspected of supporting Mugabe's opposition."

She said with their highly-partisan nature, the security commanders, who have always made it clear that they do not like Tsvangirai, raised many questions on what are they likely to do to ensure a Zanu (PF) win."

"Some of them are clearly worried about possible issues of accountability pertaining to past abuses that they have been implicated in, like past violence, killings and torture. There is a strong feeling in the security commanders that if Morgan Tsvangirai was to come to power, they would probably be held accountable and that he wouldn't stand by possible amnesty. Those concerns raise the tensions in Zimbabwe and raise the stakes for the security services and definitely make any other reforms null and void."

The HRW official said the army commanders seemed only interested in securing their own power base, adding that the SADC and the unity needed to focus on how they could handle the security services and ensure they remained neutral.

"The title of our most recent report is 'Elephant in the Room' because we are saying that this is an issue that everyone knows and is aware about, but no-one actually wants to deal with because it's, in their view, such a highly sensitive issue and a highly sensitive situation. But by ignoring it, they are simply worsening the situation and not fixing the problem at all, but simply delaying it because what we will see is possible violence, perhaps after the elections, depending on the results."

She said both SADC and the Zimbabwean unity government needed to put punitive measures in place for the security forces ahead of the polls.

"Any members of the army and the police services who makes inflammatory statements that intimidate and abuse people and those that show that they are not neutral should be prosecuted and held accountable because Zimbabwe's own laws – both the Lancaster House and current constitution insist on the neutrality of the police services and the army, especially during elections," added Kasambala.

"We recently heard that a number of police officers were arrested because they had been seen at an MDC event, but we have not heard of the same happening to those that attend Zanu (PF) events because have highlighted in reports that police attended Zanu (PF) events and even made statements supporting Zanu (PF)."

In the worst-case scenario, Zimbabwe could degenerated into widespread violence similar to that of the 2008 Presidential election run-off, which resulted in the MDC pulling out. The MDC-T claims that more than 200 of its supporters were killed in that violence, which displaced thousands of other people, especially in rural Mashonaland.

"It seems likely that Mugabe, his party and his supporters in the military security forces would be intent on holding on to power by whatever means and that raises serious concern.

"Mugabe has made statements about peaceful elections and about peace, which is positive, but we know that he has not made any efforts to criticise the security chiefs that have been very partisan towards him and those that have made inflammatory statements in his favour. Some of them have even been promoted."

Kasambala said the July 31 date set by Zimbabwe's Constitutional Court as the deadline on which elections should be held in Zimbabwe did not provide enough time for wholesome reforms.

"The end of July is too short a time, not only for security sector reforms, but other reforms like media access and cleaning up the voters' role," she said.

"Zimbabwe needs to be more time to do those kind of things, but it is possible during three months to say the army should go back to the barracks and that the army must commit publicly to neutrality and non-involvement in the electoral affairs, but it is simply a matter of political will within parties in the unity government, with pressure from SADC."

She said Zimbabwe still needed three to six months of preparations before elections took place, adding that a more feasible timeline would be October.

"Zimbabwe has gone through a lot and needs a wholesome reform process in order to hold elections that are free, fair and incredible and to level the playing field between the former ruling party and all other opposition parties that are going to run. We would recommend that South Africa and the SADC make it clear that elections should be held in Zimbabwe only if key reforms are implemented and the SADC guidelines on elections are met. They should make it very clear that they will not endorse elections under conditions that do not meet those standards."