Generally, the Zimbabwean model of a coalition, like the Kenyan one, entails political parties coming together, adding up numbers but retaining their respective organisational and ideological identities. This concept, it seems, is grounded on the old adage that there is strength in numbers. Thus, the coalition would fundamentally be a strategy to change the political status quo—a practical method to chart a new dispensation, rather than an ideological phenomenon.
Of course, in order to bring about a new order, there is simulation of ideology. The parties, as we have seen in past years, would look at the shortcomings of the sitting regime and ride on those. They would talk about a need to establish democratic governance, rule of law, constitutionalism, economic prosperity and peaceful co-existence.
That is their first weakness. A pro-democracy chorus in itself does not provide the thread that would successfully bind the coalition together. There is need to go beyond that and construct a cementing ideology, but that has not been the case. Instead, there have been false starts in every attempt to come up with an enduring coalition because the main inspiration has been merely the removal of the incumbent regime.
I am not sure if coming together solely to remove President Robert Mugabe and his party from power would guarantee sustainability of any coalition. The danger is, assuming the parties were ever to succeed in forming the coalition and then dislodging Zanu (PF), they would suddenly find themselves with power they would not know how to use.
Despite loud denials, recent moves to form a coalition, led this time by Tendai Biti’s renewal team, seem to be mired in power -seeking dynamics. When Biti’s movement, which is still struggling not only to come up with its own ideology, but also what form that would assume, claimed it was on the verge of signing an MOU with the other opposition parties, Simba Makoni’s MKD was quick to dismiss that.
Rather, it saw the premature announcement as a rent-seeking attempt. That boils down to the issue of power. MKD is suspicious of the renewal group, which it accuses of a plot to claim a superior position if the prospective coalition partners finally come together.
Despite my fervent hope, I frankly don’t see Tendai Biti relinquishing the reins to Dumiso Dabengwa or Simba Makoni when it comes to the matter of who should lead the coalition. Self-interest and self-preservation are still going to prevail, throwing spanners into the works.
On the other hand, Makoni and Dabengwa would not accede to Biti taking pole position. They consider themselves politically superior. Even if Morgan Tsvangirai were to step into the fray as Makoni wants, the ghost of power would not go away.
Biti has already accused Tsvangirai him of leadership failure, and he says that is one of the principal reasons why he broke away. How, then, would be a compromise be made?
Take someone from outside? That is unlikely. Zimbabwean politics is still hamstrung by the founder mentality. It is improbable that those who sweated to form the coalition would simply surrender the fruits of their labour to someone who did nothing all along. In any case, the process of identifying the leader would hardly escape partisanship. Whoever might be chosen is likely to be seen as a protégé of one of the coalition principals, and the vicious cycle would continue.
I was told back then, by those in the know, that Tsvangirai was not comfortable ganging up with the likes of Makoni and Margaret Dongo for the 2008 elections because he feared for his turf. He was equally fearful of Dabengwa, but also very confident of victory.
Tsvangirai was also sure of victory ahead of the 2013 polls and that is why he rejected all attempts at a coalition. He assumed he had enough power. None of the other parties—MKD, Zapu, Welshman Ncube’s MDC etc—have much of a constituency to talk about after July 2013.
Those that are in Parliament today are there merely because of the generosity of the constitution that provides for hand-outs in the legislature through proportional representation.
Tsvangirai knows that and he would never want any of those leaders tagging along with him. But then, Biti thinks he is a shoddy political manager, and the others probably think the same way too.
Given all the above, perhaps the most prudent thing to do would be not to assume that a grand coalition is what will take Zimbabwe to the Promised Land. We should consider other political models to ensure that happens. That might mean rallying behind a single, viable, solid movement. Is there one out there anywhere? – To comment on this article, please contact majonitt@gmail.com
Post published in: News