There is supposition that in the coming year, he will gently relinquish the reins of power while easing his deputy, Emmerson Mnangwa into the point position.
However, this speculation may be off the mark as Zanu (PF) has already nominated Mugabe as its 2018 Presidential candidate. The Mugabe brand is the strongest within the party and it is the only name holding together what is left of a fractious Zanu (PF).
If there are still any genuine Zanu (PF) votes, they are purely out of sentiment – the liberation war party – to which Mugabe’s name is attached. Frankly, it would not be outside the realms of possibility for Mugabe to cling to power until he has to be wheeled into Munhumutapa Building.
If Mugabe were to be physically incapacitated before 2018, Mnangagwa, successor by default, would not feel secure in his position, hence the continuing purge of Mujuru supporters. Also in the event of a grand coalition, the demoralised opposition might once again offer a real threat.
There were signs in the last year that the international community is keen to reengage the ostracised state but on the condition of a resolution to the succession issue.
In fact, foreign delegates appeared to sidestep Mugabe, preferring the then VP, Joice Mujuru. That may not necessarily suggest a preference for Mujuru but more an unwillingness to deal with Mugabe who (a) has been blacklisted by the international community and (b) cannot be thought of in the future tense, given his advanced age.
However, it remains to be seen whether Mnangagwa, a strong Mugabe ally, would be well-received by investors.
Even if Mugabe finally decides to call it a day, chances are he would only nominate Mngangagwa as a puppet, while the nonagenarian continues to pull strings from behind the scenes.
Whatever develops in 2015, there remain a few cold, hard, unchanging facts:
• We are now three years away from the next general election
• Zanu (PF)’s promise of two million jobs by 2018 looks more and more unlikely
• Zimbabwe will outlive Robert Mugabe – Till next week, my pen is capped. Jerà. Twitter @JeraZW
Post published in: News