Eddie Cross
This has never been more true than today.
We were a dominium within the Commonwealth from 1923 to 1965 (same status as Canada and Australia), then we declared independence from Britain in 1965 and entered a period of civil war and complete isolation enforced by the first set of sanctions ever imposed by the US Security Council. In 1980 we became an independent country, a paid up Member of the UN and all its agencies as well as the African Union and the SADC. Never, during all this time did we ever have an extended period of comparative peace and prosperity – it was always a struggle.
After Independence we had 37 years of one Party rule by Robert Mugabe, one of the great strong men of Africa. His rule was accompanied by genocide, economic collapse (in 2008 we were a failed State), record levels of inflation, monetary collapse, hunger and migration to other countries. Then a quasi-military coup led by the present President who has now been in near total control for 9 years.
This latest phase has had its moments. We started well with not one but two inauguration speeches – one on 2017, after the coup and the second after the election in 2018. In both, the new President promised a number of things; respect for the new Constitution adopted in 2013, compensation for the farmers dispossessed by the land reform program under Mugabe, monetary and fiscal reform and a new democratic disposition after decades of one party rule and a form of democratic war with the MDC.
The actual process has not quite conformed to this vision. The Opposition has been nearly totally dismantled after they declined to recognise the newly elected President in 2018 and then refused the offer to become a “loyal Opposition”. The methods used were subtle and ruthless and as a result, we are close to being a “One Party State” as we ever were with little hope of organised opposition.
The Constitution, adopted by a massive vote of over 94 per cent in 2013, has been “modified” to try and entrench the current dispensation. The term of office extended, and the election of a State President nullified. At the same time, the rule of law is recognised in its abuse and distortions that seek to serve the interests of the politically connected and the wealthy oligarchs who have emerged since 2014.
But a lot has been achieved – the economy has been stabilized, inflation brought under control, a new local currency has started to play a part and we have discovered gold. In addition, the Chinese Government has selected Zimbabwe for the supply of selected commodities – gold, chrome, lithium and steel and are investing billions in pursuit. Exports are booming and are mainly driven by Chinese demand – record tobacco production, 25 per cent of world lithium demand, millions of tonnes of ferrochrome and billions of dollars of gold. By 2030 Chinese demand may well drive our real export earnings to over US$50 billion a year.
The impact on the wider economy has been equally dramatic – foreign exchange earnings will exceed US$22 billion this year, compared to US$6 billion three years ago. Budget revenue will exceed US$11 billion against the planned US$8 billion. Real GDP, not that measured by activity in the formal economy, probably exceeds 15 per cent per annum. Inflation is down to less than 3 per cent; we have a fiscal and a balance of payments surplus. In addition, we are making progress towards debt restructuring and acceptance into the global financial world after decades of isolation. That’s quite a record of achievement.
But this progress is fragile. We are not creating employment; structural poverty grips our rural population and much of the urban population. Industry and agriculture are not recovering; once the Chinese have got what they came for, they will go back to China and leave behind millions of hectares of land degraded and abused. They are not investing in our infrastructure – their increased activities are accelerating the deterioration in our roads and water supplies.
In reality our critical social services are failing our people. Education is retreating from the heights achieved after Independence. Health services are in a deplorable State. The massive migration of people fleeing our failing economy and lack of opportunity is stripping us of our most valuable asset, our educated and skilled minorities. But in addition, we are no longer a functioning democracy and there is ample evidence of State capture by a small group of connected individuals who have accumulated considerable fortunes and whose lifestyles are exceptional even by international standards. In addition, the very forces that brought change in 2017 are now deeply divided and as the Bible says “a divided house cannot stand”. If not corrected these conditions might destroy our hard earned peace and sudden prosperity.
Post published in: Featured