Letter from America – The power of demos

been on the streets protesting against the king whom they accuse of having turned into a dictator. The king has his back against the wall and analysts say it is a matter of time before he falls.
Imagine this happened in Zimbabwe. Imagine hundreds of thousands of people thronging the streets, Mugabe would now be hidden in State House with all indications that he was about to surrender.
This is a distinct possibility. Zimbabweans have in recent weeks made a rare demonstration of anger and determination to get rid of Mugabe, and in a way that has not been experienced for many years now. The MDC congress in March appears to have rejuvenated the party, judging by the weekly rallies that have drawn thousands of supporters.
Zimbabweans have confounded predictions by analysts that they are too weak and too hungry and too poor to stage any meaningful protest against Mugabe. That kind of strength has even been acknowledged by the military chiefs. Ever since a splinter group led by Mutambara broke away, the MDC appears to have emerged more determined than ever to mobilize mass protests.
There is plenty of evidence that the Mutambara-led splinter group, riddled with defections, could soon collapse. The only thing keeping it going is South African President Thabo Mbeki, who is now pushing for a government of national unity in which he hopes the Mutambara faction will gain equal recognition with the Real MDC.
Even Mbeki has apparently now accepted that Tsvangirai is the legitimate leader of the MDC and that he cannot be replaced. Details are beginning to emerge about the roadmap towards this, apparently supported by the western countries. The original plan to replace Tsvangirayi with either Welshman Ncube or Mutambara has now given way to giving both factions, as they like to call them, equal status in the government of national unity.
Another change of plan would appear to be a recognition that MDC enjoys far more popular support than was ever imagined. The idea therefore of creating a government of national unity in which MDC is a junior partner is being revised in recognition of the populist strength of Tsvangirai.
It is understood that Mugabe has made a number of demands: complete immunity from criminal persecution for all the crimes he has committed against humanity in Zimbabwe; control for four years of key ministries; the right to appoint his successor in 2008 and to postpone elections until 2010 and a generous retirement package. He is also demanding that sanctions against him be lifted and that the financial aid and loans must be granted to Zimbabwe immediately.
Mugabe, whose Security Minister Didymus Mutasa had only recently given the remaining white farmers a deadline to vacate their farms, has, in a remarkable U turn now invited the same whites back to their farms!
Economic Planning Minister Rugare Gumbo, unveiled what he called an economic recovery program. But Mugabe could not resist issuing a stern warning to leaders of the opposition movement if they should launch street demonstrations against him.
He also called on Zimbabweans in Diaspora to come home, saying he did not want to improve conditions at home by himself! Were this not a serious issue Mugabe’s outbursts would be laughable nonsense.
Not long ago his Justice Minister announced a plan to form a human rights commission. Some people compared this to the devil establishing a Christian prayer group in hell!
All these pie-in-the-sky promises were undoubtedly an effort by Mugabe to avoid the mass demonstration. His logic is that if he can make rapid promises on the eve of a mass protest people will change their minds about participating in mass protests. He also hopes that the international community will be satisfied by these half measures and reverse its targeted sanctions and encourage a flow of investments and aid to the country. The MDC as the leading opposition party in the country will have to decide whether to participate in the government of national unity and on what terms.
There is a very strong sentiment against participating in the government of national unity, especially on Mugabe’s terms. Zimbabweans cannot afford another four years of Mugabe’s misrule. The mass action will therefore be MDC’s way of asserting its position. The masses in Nepal have managed to push their king to a corner. Thanks to the power of demonstrations.