Letter from America (21-06-07)

bleak prospect for any hopes for the successful outcome of the Mbeki talks.
However, Mugabe’s game plan should not surprise anyone because we have known all along that Mugabe and Zanu (PF) are now practicing the politics of survival. They had hoped there might be a general amnesty for them once an agreement among the stakeholders had been reached. But they know that their crimes against humanity in Zimbabwe have reached a level where they cannot realistically expect a blanket amnesty as happened in the 1979 talks that led to free elections in Zimbabwe.
According to insiders Mugabe’s plans are a result of the economic, not political, pressure on him. His supporters, most of whom have benefited from the politics of patronage in the looting of the state assets, now find themselves in a situation where their newly-acquired farms and businesses are reeling unprofitably under the deteriorating economic conditions.
The country’s economic performance was ranked dead last in Africa while the rest of the continent recorded modest economic growth. Even in Somalia, a country that has been without an effective government for over 15 years, the Somali Shilling is a lot stronger than the ZimDollar.
Whether it is farms or businesses they seized, Mugabe’s cronies find that their loot is not turning into a profitable investment, but an expensive and rotting liability.
The attempted coup, whose real motives are shrouded in mystery, could have been a wakeup call for Mugabe that there is a growing dissatisfaction with the way things are going among his own supporters. The military, the police and thugs who have done most of the dirty work sustaining Mugabe in power have been handed the short end of the stick. They find themselves suffering more while a few very privileged officials in continue to reap the rewards of Mugabe’s patronage.
The argument that the problems in Zimbabwe are a result of sanctions from the west is no longer sustainable, if ever it was. Mugabe now recognizes that the minor reforms in his game plan must of necessity include his stepping down from office. He needs someone who will not only protect him from prosecution for his crimes against humanity but who will maintain the party’s rule indefinitely.
His strategy, therefore, involves, first and foremost, creating conditions that will favour a Zanu (PF) victory in any elections. This includes the usual ballot rigging; creation of new constituencies to increase the size of parliament and the ongoing exclusion of Zimbabweans in Diaspora, estimated to number more than four million; ongoing intimidation and threats against opposition supporters.