PF the agenda was quite straight forward – they fought a long hard struggle to gain power in Zimbabwe. No matter how badly they have performed as a government, they believe it is their right to govern and to govern alone and to their benefit. Their agenda has been quite simple – to stay in power at any cost, even if it results in the total destruction of the economy and the social infrastructure that they inherited from the former regime together with what they established in the early days of their own administration.
They have stuck to that agenda and you must give them top marks for how they have ruthlessly pursued this goal. In doing so of course they have created the conditions for their own demise and eventual eviction from power, either by internal or external forces or from a combination of both. They have destroyed any chance that they can now retire from the field as combatants with honor.
For the Movement for Democratic Change, the agenda has been diametrically opposed to that of Zanu PF. The MDC set its objective as a peaceful, legal, democratic transfer of power to itself in order to affect a complete overhauls of the country’s affairs and how they are managed. Exactly what would be involved in such an exercise was never clear from the start, either how they would get there or what to do when they eventually arrived.
These shortcomings in the approach of the MDC are understandable – they completely underestimated the determination of Zanu PF to protect their turf at all costs, even if it meant destroying all they had built up over 20 years of independence. They also underestimated the cost and difficulty of overthrowing a deeply entrenched regime with all the levers of power in their hands. They had some ideas about what to do when the ball finally landed in their laps, but these were hazy and ill defined. This shortcoming is now being rectified.
For South Africa the agenda has been a confused jumble of perceived threats and needs and the pressures that they have faced from the global community and their domestic constituencies. The ANC leadership started out in 2000 with what they thought was a clear agenda – initiate change within Zanu PF and head off the possibility of a MDC government under Morgan Tsvangirai.
They have moved from reform under the leadership of Mr. Mugabe, to the installation of a “reformed Zanu PF government” to a “National Government” including the MDC in some form but under the continued leadership of Zanu PF – without Mugabe.
The road that they have used is littered with burnt out wrecks – the careers of Munangagwa, Mujuru and Makoni, the Tsholotsho debacle and Jonathan Moyo, the split in the MDC and the group now led by Mutambara. Perhaps the most recent casualty is Zanu PF itself, reeling from its internal conflicts and confusion as to the wisdom of the self-destruction triggers that have recently been pulled to scuttle what is left of the Zimbabwe economy.
Inside South Africa the ANC has struggled with its own agenda’s – the attempt to keep Jacob Zuma out of the Presidency of the ANC and subsequently the country. The struggle to hold the alliance together – knowing full well that it is Cosatu that delivers the ANC electoral punch and the SACP much of its intellectual credence. The first has failed and this has perhaps solved the problem of the second, as Zuma is one of the few people who can in fact hold the ANC together.
Faced with these failures of policy – both domestic and regional, Mbeki now goes into a SADC summit with the historical challenge to rescue what is left of his credibility and use the power of South Africa under his leadership to turn the tide of self-destruction that is now destroying what is left of his northern neighbor. His own legacy depends on the outcome.
Each of the side players in this Shakespearian tragedy has played their role in this situation. The business and farming community that has become a victim of the self-defence strategies of Zanu PF have opted for the path of least resistance – any other route would simply be too costly in personal terms. They have offered no resistance to the agenda being played out inside Zimbabwe. Those who did paid the price.
The independent media has also played its part – those elements that have stood their ground and fought back on principle, have simply been wiped out. The Daily News was bombed and then forced out of business. SW Radio never even got off the roof of the Monomotapa Hotel in Harare and now broadcasts from London. Trevor Ncube chose to back the South African “reformers” thinking that this might protect his new status as a media mogul in South Africa while keeping his Zimbabwean investments out of the main struggle where they might otherwise suffer irreparable damage. Was he right? Only time will tell.
Then there was the agenda of the international community – quite simple really, how to stay outside the ring and avoid involvement except from time to time cheer for one of the combatants or another and hope that that somehow, a solution will emerge that takes Zimbabwe off their radar screens – they have bigger fish to fry.
Whatever the agenda this farce is about to play out and lets just pray that the end will be such that the real agenda becomes the new agenda for all who are concerned about or have interests in, Zimbabwe.