rrive for work and their
colleagues said they had left Zimbabwe for South Africa.
If this is indicative of what is happening in business then the human
flood predicted as a consequence of this present situation is well and truly
under way. The wage freeze will accelerate this in the next couple of months.
The talks in South Africa continue – progress is reported but it is
very slow. As I said before I am quite sure that an agreement will emerge
from this process eventually. The problem is that if nothing is done to rein
in what the Joint Operations Command is doing and was planned after the
decision was taken to bring the elections back to March 2008, we will
be unable to run any sort of campaign and the electorate will be totally
dislocated well before the elections take place.
The present movement of people will render the voters roll (already
inflated with millions of dead and absent voters) completely irrelevant. It will
be impossible to determine who lives in the wards and constituencies. The
food shortages are another issue – this is placing all primary services
directly under the control of the State to be directed on a political basis when
required. The political repression on the ground with ongoing violence
and intimidation, the arbitrary arrests and detentions of any who oppose
the regime in any way simply strengthen that situation.
A free and fair election (the objective of the SA/SADC initiative)
seems to be a remote possibility no matter what agreement is reached in South
Africa unless the issue of the overall environment for the elections is
addressed. The other issue is the possible impact on South Africa of this new wave
of human flight. I have seen recent stories claiming that the extent of
the existing Zimbabwean population in South Africa is exaggerated. I do not
think so – in fact it is probably understated. When I visit South
Africa I find I can speak Shona in most places.
One of the managers at the De Beers diamond mine 68 kilometres from
Mussina said to me last week that they see dozens of Zimbabweans every day on
their way through the area of the mine. The whole border is a porous line
over which people are finding their way every day – most (80 per cent) are
not caught and sent back. Any suggestion by South Africa that they will
grant these economic refugees some sort of status will simply exacerbate the
situation.
Furthermore, if nothing is done to curb the present price control
operation and halt the slide into bankruptcy by the majority of firms presently
operating in Zimbabwe in order to prepare them for take over by Zanu PF
and State interests, then serious, long term damage will be done to the
entire business sector with long term implications. From every perspective –
humanitarian, economic and political as well as the immediate stability
of the region as a whole, this situation must be addressed urgently.
Eddie Cross